The GOP taking the House is pretty much priced in. Even that should stop most of the damage from the fiscal side, but getting the Senate also could create full gridlock - which would be positive for the markets overall. Powell's biggest headwind is not inflation, it's fiscal policy and the fire hose of cash that just won't stop making his job so much harder than it has to be. It's only been two years, but this is going to take a long time to clean up.
In the Stock Traders Almanac from Jeffrey Hirsch there is more information about elections and its effects. https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/
misleading as usual, and this is congress not the presidency the last time we had a big congressional red wave was 1994, and more importantly the policies shift that it caused released one of the largest rallies in stock market history
Yeah I remember when Trump won Florida the ES accelerated its decline. I watched CNBC & Bloomberg analysis before the election most of them said if Trump won the markets would tank 15-20%, so the initial market movement made sense from that standpoint. I knew it was going to be a close election when Trump was winning Virginia until the very end since NoVa is where all the DC politicians live locally.
The numbers are in for the midterm election strategy. Here's how the strategy works: 1) Short the S&P 200 days prior to the election (Apr 22, 2022) 2) Close the short 43 days prior to the election (Sept 26, 2022) 3) Go long the S&P 35 days prior to the election (Oct 4, 2022) 4) Close long 250 days after the election (July 14, 2023) Performance: Short = 19.1% Long = 21.2% Total = 40.2% Stats over the life of the strategy (from 1930 until 2022, 24 periods): Average return = 25.2% % Positive = 83.3% (negative years: 1938, 1978, 2014, 2018) Max return = 84.3% (1974) Min return = -12.6% (1938) Length of trade = 450 days (1.23 years)
$$%%% AS IF the congress, judicial, private sector, local gov + state gov has nothing to do with it Medicare + its socialized waste is good \what are you smokin' ??