two bad trades in the afternoon, gave up half, fair bets, can't win every hand. atr was just 2 points in the last two hours, lost my patients, sign off.
I disagree. Luck doesn't work in this game over time. He just has sharp chart reading skills and strong discipline.
Any details on this run? Just from 15K to 100K is very impressive. You mentioned that he's now taking 1 point on 100 contracts. Did he do something similar starting out? Obviously with less contracts of course. As for luck, I agree that it doesn't work over time, but we can't ignore that luck have played a factor for many great traders. There was another guy on this board who ran a 10K account to 100K and then blew it. In the Market Wizards books there's quite a few trades who did a bet-the-farm trade to stake their account. Of course - as a leveraged day trader like your friend you'll very quickly blow out on luck alone.
I`ve always defined luck as to when hard work meets opportunity in a specific point in time... that said, he`s found his edge in this particular PA ... the law of averages will prevail in RR eventually and flatten out the curve a bit... in the mean time continue to press his bet as all good gamblers/ speculators capice!
Been a while since we had an Outside Day, but we've seen stranger things these last few years. If the LOD is in I assume we can see at least 95 + by the Close. Still seems kind of heavy, so if momentum picks up again to the down - maybe 4650? I have no strong read on this, but we're getting weakness as anticipated after a strong run up.
Probably trading range action here for a while. Pull them in on both ends and then either pull the rug or rally hard. Leaning long, but who the hell knows...