They left us with the NQ breaking out of the daily downtrend line, but the ES nowhere near the downtrend line yet. I don't think this is the start of the next bull market until they both break these trend lines. Could be a great shorting entry when the ES touches the downtrend line again. Until then I can either see a dip overnight to the fib retracement levels and then a test of the trend line tomorrow, or a test of the trend line overnight followed by a big retracement to the fib levels, and then a big move in either direction on Friday. My money will be on a test of the trend line during the day so that they have something to sell into at the right moment.
Yeah sorry man. I see more clearly now I tend to take things too personal. Will work on that fault. Finished the day with 59 net MNQ points on funded account and $44.00 on personal.
I want to post this prior to the evening session open. I missed by a few minutes. Oh well. I've duplicated the Ugly ES Daily into a TradingView pic. Here's what I see... In looking at previous attempts at breakout from the downslope parallel channel. (Previous attempts means where daily close was above trend line), all failed. the following day. Is this time different? 1) In previous attempts, break out occurred with decreasing volume. Decreasing volume is a big tell the breakout is a trap. 2) In todays "breakout" we also have declining volume, although at an elevated level. As reminder, this is final days of the quarterly roll over period, just saying. 3) If I was to take a long trade off of the Daily chart, I would wait for a retest of the trend line, With at least a mental stop 1 tick below the low of today. Keep it simple and tight. There's another bus coming around the corner on faster charts I use for trading. Personally, I do not trade off of Daily charts. Barring world peace, new oil finds, and the Chinese Communist Party disbandment, I would not be surprised to see this breakout fail by the weekend, back into the channel.
I love the explanation along with the posted chart. I don't necessarily agree with the volume analysis, but I like how you presented it clearly. Thanks.
For yesterday Daily chart had 4305 resistance which was the bare bones target if there were any buyers at all left. Above that temporarily ease off on my bearish bias. Today we also candle closed above that level which is generally fairly bullish. If I look at the weekly we have a similar setup with 4397 being first weekly resistance and also bare bones target that the chart would typically hit more often than not, after a prolonged down move. So my expectation would be we're likely to hit 4397 soon and if we start trading above it consistently like we did the 4305 today, than I'd be on the look out for another leg up to around 4463-4481 on ES.
I seldom drink soda. When I do, it's of the non-cola type; Sprite, Dew, Mist, 7up, DrPepper, etc. Most people I know choose cola. We still hangout. Thanks for the comments!
Assuming a breakout fail on the daily, Thursdays session is in a position to be an outside day. Which would be right in line with expectation of return to the channel. Volume would likely accompany such a reversal, also in line with increasing down volume remaining dominant. Just one mans analysis, not a prediction.
The President of The United States today called the leader of the 2nd (or 3rd) strongest country in the world "a war criminal". Now political posts belong downstairs in the basement here at ET... but every now and then something crosses a line where it's worth pointing out in threads that involve trading, peoples money, and the bigger picture. This is one of those moments. If you don't understand the gravitas of this, step back and think about what all those words entail, whose mouth spoke them, and the fact that the entire world heard them. This is not a game. It's not like "flaming" someone you don't like in a web-forum as you Uber your way to Starbux and chuckle as you do. This is the U.S. President, and these words out of his mouth will have ramifications that will be printed in history books 100 years from now. Do with it what you will, but I'd be careful going long without actively monitoring the position. On a brighter note, if someone puts a bullet through Putin's head and you can get the news early.... go all in with every penny you have. B1 is right. There is no reason to not be short right now, aside from gaming the intra-day chart.
I respect your viewpoint - but this is why I don't pay attention to the news relative to trading. Heed this advice. News should have nothing to do with your trading decisions. If you are a short term technical trader then avoid all news as if though it were cancer. The only exception I make is staying out of markets for a brief window during FOMC announcements like today. If you are investing long term maybe then it makes sense - but I've never found it to be anything more than a grandiose distraction. Biden calling Putin a bitch (which he is) just means more potential volatility for traders. Vol = money. Go get 'em sleepy joe.