over the weekend I did a quick look back at the last 3 quarters on the days when megacap earnings were happening, and couldn't see a significant effect of these earnings on the general trend of the overall market. Even amidst huge 10% gaps in two of the names (don't remember which ones), market only gapped down 1%. would be a cool to do a deeper study on this though. on a separate note, seeing bearish divergence across the megacaps (googl, msft, aapl), amzn rejecting off the 200d MA, tsla shitting the bed. defensive sectors leading, along with a few random biotech names, while market breadth still looks like crap. And yet the dip was bought again. all the biases aside, really hard to argue against the bulls i think.
That's because we were at a low basis, coming out of a bear year. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-reporting-a-lower-net-profit-margin-for-7th-straight-quarter
Markets were at 3800 low basis, and even worse for the tech, any dips were bought regardless the earnings. Marco outlooks are bearish.
so you're saying people knew the market had bottomed by q3 2022, hence every dip was bought, but the situation is different now? and also that's not true. googl, amzn, msft all had horrible earnings reactions to the downside between 10/25/22-10/28/22, and continuations to the downside for over a week before they found a local bottom. meanwhile, spx had only gapped down like 1%, and largely remained sideways during that time frame. that was my point
My gutfeeling - with it's negative EV - would think more down to come (my gutfeeling is basically extrapolation of previous trend, or madness of the day as they would say)