Ive listened to a couple interviews with that market wizard guy and i like him. But could anyone elaborate on what the actual thesis is here? what am i missing when i look at a picture like this and what it is actually telling? i just dont see the (obvious?) edge or information gained. Commercials and large speculators are taking larger positions now (april 2023), but they seem to be balanced against one another? i have my own opinion from reading a price chart of ES, but what is the obvious reading from the COT?
Still holding with a stop at 79. Should see a pop on the Open, IMO, and we'll get that attempt at 4200. If we drop to 79 I'll rather stop out and re-enter either in that area or lower for a pullback. We're a bit overextended, so it's not unlikely with a deeper pullback first. EDIT: Got the pop. Stop at 83 now. Better to re-enter if this initial pop fails.
Gentlemen, I believe we have lift-off. Stop at B/E here and will probably re-enter if stopped. Otherwise, holding for the 4200 BO (which may be sold or not).
4200 incoming. Will someone sell this level or do we blast through? What say ye, gentlemen? I'm swinging for the fences here with one point of profit locked in. 4230 by EOD looks about right if this continues, but I'll probably be content with 4220.
https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/CMR-New-Member-Guide-2023.pdf I am not affiliated with the provider. I just posted this here as you asked about the benefit of COT reports. I think you are quite a savvy trader to understand that there is sense in the above manual. I am a swing trader, so for me something like the above is really valuable as well as research of other chartists and fundamental analysts.
The key now is holding above Friday's High / Close ( 4189.75). If that doesn't hold, it sadly seems more probable that we'll fall back inside Friday's range for today's session. It would seem odd if we don't get a 4200 print at least, but nothing's ever certain in this game, is it?
Added one at 4193 for an average of 4188,25. Stop at B/E on entire position. Will re-evaluate if stopped. Failing once more to break higher is not ideal. If so, this could turn into a consolidation day instead which statistically wouldn't be unlikely anyway.
They got me at B/E + 1 tick. Flat. Waiting a bit here to see how the day develops. NQ is not really participating. If we're holding up nicely here at 4190 or don't make a new LOD, I may try the long side one more time.