ES Journal - 2023/2024

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 6, 2022.

  1. I’m still lurking a bit on Twitter and the bearish sentiment seems really strong. Not many who seem bullish. Quite a few are looking for a crash as well.

    Makes you wonder…

    Can the crowd really get it right?

    I think it’s better to trade it day by day or week by week.
     
    #4231     May 2, 2023
  2. chillibean

    chillibean

    i'm a bear but only very short term.
    Went short earlier.

    Been waiting for a little dip and maybe this is it. Will likely be flipping long soon enough

    upload_2023-5-2_11-12-18.png
     
    #4232     May 2, 2023
  3. Also, if you open demo accounts on CFD trading platforms, that's where mostly small speculators hang around, you would also observe that around 60%+ of total positions are bearish, which isn't extreme, yet it is a majority.

    AAPL earnings 4th May.

    So market doesn't want to sell off with expectation of 0.25 raise, imagine if they don't raise this time, market can go up 5% in a day.

    Screenshot 2023-05-02 at 11.15.56.png
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2023
    #4233     May 2, 2023
  4. Oh, for sure. 5 % may be a stretch, but this can really rip on Wednesday with continuation towards week end. Could even rip on a 0.25 raise.

    I think the last few FOMC days have sold off, though.
     
    #4234     May 2, 2023
    Master Pu likes this.
  5. Could we agree that technically this is not a downtrend any longer?

    Screenshot 2023-05-02 at 12.29.24.png
     
    #4235     May 2, 2023
  6. The down trend ended a while back, IMO, and we've been range bound for a multi-month period. I would guess that continues for a while longer.
     
    #4236     May 2, 2023
    Master Pu likes this.
  7. chillibean

    chillibean

    going flat here

    upload_2023-5-2_13-32-17.png
     
    #4237     May 2, 2023
    beginner66 likes this.
  8. Daily chart

    Based on COTs, speculators who are betting on a decrease in stock prices, keep shorting equities. If market continues to head up, they wound need to cover at some point.

    Screenshot 2023-05-02 at 14.27.18.png
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2023
    #4238     May 2, 2023
  9. chillibean

    chillibean

    got back in.
    flat again now.
    And waiting for a chance to get long now I think

    upload_2023-5-2_15-4-20.png
     
    #4239     May 2, 2023
    beginner66 likes this.
  10. Nice drop. I hope it continues until I'm back at my trading computer.

    I mentioned 4150/30 as potential support on Sunday, so let's see if those levels are worth something if we get there.
     
    #4240     May 2, 2023
    Builder17 likes this.