check 50 weekly ma on cash index, very very near. and bessent would cut public spending and want private spending while the credit card debts are all time high, not a case for strong growth. in summary, the low is not in.
50wma historically is a bear market mode for stocks and indices trading. obviously since we had 45 degree straight up in the last two years, it would take 4 years to backtrack all the gains, hard to imagine a 50% crash. but it can go down, 500 points drop right quick, that just brought down to 5100-5200. i remember we were trading at 4200 not long ago.
Like I said ... not to me. Not going to wait for price to cross a squiggly line to decide if it is a bear market or not. Actually I don't look at whether market is bull or bear. Just what it is currently, in a uptrend or downtrend. It's obvious which it is recently and will be until that changes. Changes as in at least ES closing above the prior day's high. Yet to do that since alltime Feb 19th.
Well, the things is market rarely ever tanks in one go. It will always take you out first and then plunge only when you least expect it. And how many days of decline have we had so far? Only the noobs would ponder over how much they could make by shorting this market at this stage (hypothetically speaking, not saying you're a noob).
This. I know you're a naked chart gal, but we just tagged the 200 day after like 19 months from the last touch. Tested both sides of it before bouncing yesterday. Fully expecting for a short-term bounce before a continuation lower. Call it 5950ish is the bounce has legs. 5850ish if it doesn't have legs. Cool CPI/PPI numbers and/or dovish tariff talks could be the catalyst for the move higher. The slowing economy could (probably will) be the catalyst for the next big move down.
Did it ever matter what the reason behind the price move was? Just trade what you see. That's my motto.
Folks with more money than you are paying attention to some of these levels. Follow people with more money than me is my motto. I respect your method, though.