ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. out here +15 (added one a little lower too and closed that too)

    upload_2025-7-31_17-30-9.png
     
    HawaiianIceberg and Picaso like this.
  2. NoahA

    NoahA

    Both of these are exactly right, and I was fully aware of this when I wrote what I wrote because price can only go up if people are buying.

    In Canada, there was a great chart the other day showing the increasing number of deaths of the baby boomers. Those are all representative of expensive houses that need to be sold. Trouble is that young people have no money, and even less are starting families, so they don't need big, expensive houses. The bloodbath in Canadian RE may have already started.

    Likewise, at some point, the last dollar will have gone into passive index funds. Even in the US, the boomers will start drawing on their wealth to fund a nice lifestyle, or just medical bills, and so the tide will turn for passive investing from money going in to money coming out. This is likely why Trump wanted the baby bonus investing account. They know the tide will turn the other way and everyone will be selling to cash out, so they need to create demand. The selling will happen in RE and in stocks. And as more high paying jobs disappear in the next year or two, they will be running out of buyers.

    Perfect example is with US treasuries. They know nobody wants to buy them and hence why they are so big on the stablecoin legislation. I know you guys in this ES thread probably aren't following along, but the company behind USDT, a stablecoin, has over $100B of treasuries, and is the 17th largest holder from what I remember now. This is bigger than some countries. This will explode going forward, so the government made sure to quickly pass this legistlation so they find buyers for this useless paper that the government needs someone to buy.

    But who is going to buy the houses and the stocks if nobody has money???

    Anyway... sorry... wrong thread for this... thanks everyone for reading!
     
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  3. b
    back in
     
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  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    ES filled its settlement gap 30 or so minutes ago, but bears want more.
     
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  5. Picaso

    Picaso

    Hey, we all rant here sometime :D

    Looks like I picked the wrong day to buy the dip :D

    [​IMG]
     
    theapprentice likes this.
  6. certainly seems to be more challenging recently.
    IF it's the end we had a hell of a run! we'll see lol
    Red on this trade at the mo
     
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  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    6347-6340 possible next support zone.
     
    Picaso likes this.
  8. Picaso

    Picaso

    Yeah, this is the typical day that, if you miss it for work or whatever, you look in hindsight and say: "I would totally have shorted this for 100 ES / 500 NQ" :D
     
    theapprentice likes this.
  9. I never think that tbh! lol
    This thread used to have a few posters who I won't name who would always come in and talk about how easy today was after a big trend day and be like 'if you didn't make money today you need to quit' blablabla, but it's always easy in hindsight. Especially trendy days. None of them posters ever had the balls to make even one live call in years here though.
    When I see a strong trend day that went up or down 100 es handles, I think 1/i'd probably have got the direction wrong and ate a loss, and 2/IF I caught it, there's no way i'd have held if for 100 points! I'd have piked it for +15 or so.
     
  10. Thinning the ranks of overpaid workers periodically is good for a company and not devastating to the economy. There are plenty of low and mid paid folks who will rise up to become the ones who are being removed. Rinse & repeat. Don’t worry, someone who can afford them will occupy those houses and purchase those investments.
     
    NoahA likes this.