I want to get short right here with a small stop to try and ride this back to the lows, but I'm honestly too scared because of the havoc a "PPT" announcement can cause... its just not worth it when volume is thin and a 20 handle spike can happen in seconds.
the inventory dumped on thin volume can only be capitalized when much lower levels are achieved.. some liquidity at 1200 even... spill to 1180 or so.. also since Asian markets are closed most will try to hedge on US market open, when the liquidity situation improves. MMs will game the hedgers by giving them an 'out' at much lower prices. ... below 1200.
You are not describing a reasonable trade (you define what the reasoning is), you are describing fear of a gap. Go south young man, go south. Osorico 01:00am EST, ES @1212.00
back to 1250 tomorrow...you may not like how the situation is resolving itself, it is resolved...MER is resolved and AIG will be dealt with quickly...Bad open then recovery...
even with resolution, it implies tight money conditions...for the future. Tight money conditions lead to further problems in a domino like situation for the economy. The FED will be forced to increase money supply tremendously,... 1) dollar debasement. US policy makers are looking at creating a Japanese like time interval, where much much lower credit yields persist for a extended period of time. It helps create demand for US notes/bonds. A financial market collapse is actually whats needed to create better financing conditions for the Treasury. This protracted deflationary time interval lets the Asian 'distribute' their holdings to others at a profit.
Spectre, this is my take on the longer-term perspective. This is a 5-year weekly chart of $SPX. BTW don't expect me to be back here anytime soon.
Just went long 2 contracts at1216.75 (currently at 1218) as I believe the worst is finally coming to a close. It now looks like the rest of the banks will not let another big bank fail with their 70B lifeline. My stop is at 1197 and no current target on this one. I expect to close out near the end of the trading day. If we do get below 1200 and stopped out I will be looking at placing a much small stop larger contract trade with better r:r.
Limit long 10 cars ES December expiration at 1200, 20 at 1190 40 at 1180, stop 3% of account at approximately 1147.75, target Monday 4PM close EST. It is now 2:57AM EST and no fills yet. Emini Guru