Japan did that. Completely messed up all intraday patterns is the least thing you should worry about. So called temporary rule may stay if government deems the change helps "stablizing" the mkt. If Germany and other countries follow the footstep due to their politicians trying to copy the act as the "result looks promising", most of the market dynamics as we know will be gone forever. My diversification into instruments outside of the stock mkt seems like a very good move now.
OK, here's one from the historical price studies I used to do. this study was based on price action 2 weeks before the presidential election through 2 weeks after the presidential elections) This is not necessarily a bottom picker, but a recognition of what has historically been a potential launching point (higher) for a few weeks. Historically, one of the best days to be a buyer has been the close of the 6th trade day before the presidential election day. If memory serves me correctly, this was based on data back to the 1940's. this year, that 6th trade day before the election would mean buying the close of Friday October 24. Think about this: The semi artificially induced rally we are in will probably produce good upside maybe until/near oct2 when the short sell restrictions run out. Once the short selling restriction is removed, there should/could be profit-taking and a good retracement. PA rules, but I will be interested to see what daily/weekly price action looks like as we near October 24. "Markets are never wrong; opinions are." -J.L. Livermore
As the losing side, the shorts who have the $ so far to withstand the shock are trying to do what they do normally. The problem is that they may have to give in this time as many tools are no longer available. e.g. hedged sell program, sell side bots. Right on option exp, forcing ES back to 1250 by close would be the worst joke of all.
I see this as putting a bandaid on a broken elbow. The gov't has been very successfull at finding scapegoats and manipulating the markets under the guise of "saving america".
cnbc reporting that Treasury will offer a guarantee program for money market funds. press conference at 10am
Concur. 68-72 zone *should* provide resistance. However 1288-95 zone is more applicable IMO. Do not forget... FACT: this is contrived upside movement.
If PPT want try convince us - this is the bottom we never return here - than they probably want not leave such giant gap bellow us like obvioust short seller target. But who cares anyway...
A momentum trader just buys and sells and should flip sides on the reversals (a volume filter can help to decide whether to flip or hold on). A momentum fader or his/her systems must be well versed and founded in statistics and odds. A deep study of option pricing and volatilities is very beneficial for momentum faders.
LC, "Right on option exp, forcing ES back to 1250 by close would be the worst joke of all." I wouldn't be surprised if we trade up towards 1269 and end the day at 1250. Checkmate for them.