So I guess the market is going to go haywire after the publication of the result of the meeting according to this from their website: A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board's Freedom of Information and Public Affairs Offices and on the Board's Web site following the closed meeting. I guess we can have "increased volatility" at any time during the trading day or AH depending on when they make this "final announcement"?
The meeting notes indicate the purpose is to discuss the ADVANCE RATE and the DISCOUNT rate. These are different from the Fed FUNDS rate. The discount rate is typically one point above the funds rate, but there are also three discount rates (primary credit, secondary credit and seasonal). I don't feel like the data since the last meeting has deviated significantly from projections, although a few numbers were a tad hot. Anything's possible, but my guess would be a balance sheet policy shift or a change in the discount/funds rate spread.
target rate implied probability is so wild right now for 11/2. 350-375 - 46.8% 375-400 - 53.2% I am going to stick with the market and be agnostic but it is really hard to see them softening on anything.
Oh, it did. The PCE yesterday came in hotter than expected, and that is their inflation gauge. Expect a hike tomorrow!
I remember someone started a thread on ET about one these upcoming Expedited fed meetings a few years ago. It turned out that meeting had was not significant. Nothing market moving came out from it.
350-375 has gained a little bit more to 45%. I am adding size to a QQQ position long I started last week. I feel like you can use a nice tight stop here for a very asymmetric trade on the index.
Nothing came out of it, far as I can tell. It seemed to be a run-of-the-mill discussion about internal rate controls.