The point is Volatility is usually underpriced. Because they usually underestimate fat tails. ... The lower the probability, the less efficient. If you’re short vol then you earn 99% of the time. But if you buy vol you bury them 1 out of 100 times.
Exactly. Looking at the current V shaped recovery one holding too long those would have ended up losing money, instead of making gazillions.
Stock market returns exhibit a more leptokurtic distribution vs a normal distribution. Leptokurtic distributions have fatter tails (higher kurtosis) which is a better representation of reality The tails, outliers, and black swans are always mispriced because most option pricing models assume a normal distribution in the returns on the underlying.