Do you know if Warren Buffet is diversified between all of the USD crosses. If so, does he hold the same percentage for each one?
I think that the Wait and See approach might be over as early as tomorrow and that the US Dollar Index will soon go from 87 to 90. - Oil prices seem to be heading towards $60, which will help stocks. - Katrina fears are easing, as the stock market has shown. - For the past 5 weeks, it became less and less likely that the Fed would adopt a more accommodative stance any time soon. What I would like to add to the list is: - The FX market is focusing on growth more than interest rates and in that regard, Europe is still disappointing. - Since July 21st, the dollar and oil have been going in opposite directions, indicating that the main argument for buying US dollar, which is economic growth in the US, was loosing support because of oil prices surging. The US depends more than Europe on growth to attract foreign capital because of it's low saving rate and it's huge current account deficit.
I am looking to buy the Euro... Though it is only one contract, I am long at 1.2390 with the Euro futures..
My data indicates that the positive sentiment that was building up for the US dollar has drastically changed today because of renewed uncertainties caused by increasing oil prices. I'm not bullish on the dollar anymore.
USD has fallen significantly since this post. Anyone have any predictions on when it will hit a bottom?
The bottom seems to be far. Strong growth is the only fundamental variable supporting the US dollar and if oil is already bouncing back before reaching 60-61, markets will discount additional uncertainties about growth in the US. The trend for stocks seems to be turning from flat to slightly negative and bonds seem to be slightly oversold again.