You're gonna love this... http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/10/friends-in-high-places.html
The story about Goldman changing the weighting in the index is indeed interesting. Thanks. Back in July, i think it was, i first read in the NY Times about the shortage of storage facilities and the writer was predicting a decrease in crude prices 4 to 6 months out as a result. I did a rough calculation using the then current crude price and assuming oil would drop to mid-fifties. Assuming the percentage drop was passed 100% on to refined products, something that at the time seemed unlikely to me, I estimated that gasoline would drop to about $2.37/gal. In fact, it dropped below $2.37/gal well before crude reached the the price i assumed in the calculation. The "manipulation" of the index and hence gasoline futures is apparently the mechanism used to pull this off. Very clever, if you ask me, and more than a little sneaky. The timing is suspect. Those expecting gas prices to rebound after the election are likely correct. Probably to $2.37/gal or above, i would guess. OPEC is apparently shooting for $55/barrel though they have not yet voted.