Small businesses run this county not big businesses. In my view 90% of all GDP is local. There will be massive closures, families out of work, healthcare taken away, hospitals will fail and the cities will begin to die. In the middle of the country it will get no better, everyone relies on decent sourcing and trade. This magical workforce of Nazi’s will never materialize. Large corporations will try to replace mom and pop shops with robots instead of workers. I don’t see a good outcome to any of this.
Airports are empty. Nobody wants to come to USA anymore. The beacon of light on the hill is no more. What comes from no tourists? I don’t think a healthy stock market.
Van I’m not good with the letters that mean stuff except for SMH & Lol BTFD.. Be True For Democracy ! I agree.
Agree, but to project Economics into the future too far is like projecting Technical Analysis too far ahead ... it generally doesn't work.
My concern like yours is Trump's narcissism/sociopathy and losing Face over the last Round of Tariff deals ie. TACO, will make Trump hold firm this time, bringing down the entire House.
Nobody took time to notice today that private hiring has turned over. Local government spending was most of the job growth. Cities like NY won’t be spending for long we are in an election cycle and budgets tend to favor teachers and healthcare during elections. Other cities are spending because federal dollars have been cut and even clawed back. It’s non sustainable …
Stoney, if I can offer you some advice, stop looking at the Economics, that's not your speciality. Your advantage is in being a full time Stock Trader. Let THE STOCKS whisper to you what the broader Market is going to do.
It's very tough though Dark. My wife is constantly doom scrolling... she brings that phone to me and shoves it in my face all day long. I like to think I am as good an economist as a stock picker but there are many angles of course. One thing i know for sure is history has showed us if you lower interest rates when hitting stagflation bad stuff happens. I've always studied the Fed from the old Greenspan days on. And one can predict the stock market to a certain extent if you know what's coming bdown the line. I grant you sometimes the reads are wrong. And that's why i am not now currently in cash the way i was at the end of last year. then I really put my money where my mouth was and that's why my return is ahead of most all stock pickers at this time. Another stock picker doing well LATELY is Cathie. I've made fun of her views in the past so it's only right I recognize her performance this year: ARKK Performance:The Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) closed out the first half of 2025 with a 24% gain. Outperforming the S&P 500:This performance significantly outpaced the S&P 500's comparable 6% return during the same period. My basic thesis is this: We are not up 20% from lows. Those lows were self inflicted injuries and had nothing to due with valuations or earnings. We are slightly up from where we were. That's why i don't really see huge risk or reward at this point. The lows were artificial and so is the rebound. ~si