The consumer aint' buying Procter & Gamble will find out the hard way. these tariffs will get paid by our corporations and a huge swath of mom and pop small businesses will fail we will enter a period of shame and regression barely growing 1%.. limping along until we figure out immigration.
I just won another debate. It was with some bankers I was a CC and couldn't help myself. Guy was talking BS about Tariffs being a one time hit to the economy. I said what of next year? The tariffs come off? Silence. Who are you?/ Click.
Those numbers... pfff. This economy is on fire Stoney. People are spending money. I mean look at your Superman movie as just the most tiny of Peter Lynch insights... $300MM already at the domestic box office. Tried to buy any concert tickets this summer? Already overpriced af, but all sold out and the scalpers are the only show in town if you want a seat. And if traffic jams are any clue... Naaa.... this economy is on fire. And tbh, that's why Powell hasn't cut yet. It has nothing to do with price increases from tariffs.
Before next FOMC Sept 17th, there will be yet another lousy NFP Sept 5th with maybe another down revision for this month. And CPI/PPI/PCE in between with a tariff bump perhaps. Now who's economy - which could be heading down the stagflation road - is this Biden, TACO, Bessent's oh it by now gotta be JD's. He'll fit under the bus.
There'll be a bump. No doubt. And that will slow things down. But it's "manufactured" inflation, not organic, and Powell has to take that into consideration.
He (Powell) is taking it into consideration, but with TACO the bumps keep coming. He (TACO) is frantic to get all these things done before midterms. Then he'll really kick things into gear after. He hopes.
The economy is barely growing 1.5%. All the talking heads said it would be all right. Tariffs will only be 10%. I stood up to the econ bullies I said what if it's 20%... Well now you are finding out. Prices up up up. Jobs down down down. You are living a self-induced stagflation.