This Is, Officially, the 3rd Priciest Stock Market in Over 150 Years -- and There's No Mistaking What Comes Next for Stocks, Based on History This is one of the priciest stock market's dating back to 1871 The Shiller P/E is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS over the prior 10 years. Since shock events and recessions tend to be short-lived, they can't skew the results for the Shiller P/E in the same way they can with the traditional P/E ratio. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. In December, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E hit a closing high during the current bull market of 38.89. But on Friday, July 25, it surpassed this mark with a closing multiple of 38.97. This is now, officially, the third-priciest continuous bull market when back-tested to January 1871. There are only two previous instances where the Shiller P/E has been higher than 38.97 -- and the end result wasn't pretty for investors either time: In December 1999, just months prior to the popping of the dot-com bubble, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E hit an all-time high of 44.19. On a peak-to-trough basis, the S&P 500 lost 49% of its value during the bursting of the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 78%. During the first week of January 2022, with fiscal stimulus fueling the U.S. economy and stock market, the Shiller P/E crept ever-so-slightly above 40. During the 2022 bear market, the benchmark index shed 25% of its value, with the Nasdaq peaking at a 36% decline. In fact, all five prior occurrences (not including the present) where the Shiller P/E Ratio has surpassed 30 and held this level for at least two months were eventually followed by declines in one or more of the major stock indexes ranging from 20% to as much as 89% (during the Great Depression).
Has anyone noticed that the leaders of the economy, the actual transports are literally doing nothing the entire year... IYT completely lagging the markets by a wide margin....
20 minutes before markets rocket higher Look for a 1% rally by close. ..Powell is NOT cutting rates but will remain very Dovish
Having fun? Everything is perfection. Risk has been permanlltely eliminated. Go out and enjoy your summer. This aint dropping anytime soon or ever.
Just to let every know... Nvda added a half a trillion in market cap in only 4 weeks If this trajectory stands and continues it will add another $3 trillion to its market cap by December 2025!!! Let that sink in
You'll like this chart of CSCO from 1996-2000: CSCO went up 8X in 18 months after the LTCM collapse in the summer of 1998.
So you thought, you really did, but again this market is different. It's not going down. SPY barely closed red, Q's green as again they bought the dip and as expected tech earnings delivered and again we are hitting another new ATH tomorrow. No matter how much you hope for and want to believe this market isn't capable of dropping. Top for 2025? LMFAO. We have about 20 more days of hitting ATH if not more to go through. We might not even see another 5% pullback this year. Definitely free and clear till September of seeing even a down 1% day. That's nearly $6 now. With the algos gobbling up every dip in sight, good luck.