Oh really ? Why were p/e’s 18 in 2020 and are 23 now based on 2022 earnings if earnings growing faster than the mkt ? Wrong !!!
I am comparing 2019 to 2021; 2020 had a black swan event. 23 is upper normal range just like I posted about in late 2019. The earnings growth has been tremendous in 2021, but this very basic fact seems to elude many short term traders. Too many obsessed with big tech; markets are so much more then just IT. And there are many other supporting factors right now that support a higher P/E anyways ( eg cheap money, seasonality ). Drop the hyperbole. We have enough of that from the permabears on here. I believe it was a month or two ago one analyst did the calculation and the SPX P/E was up 21% over two years when the index itself was up 24%. I can't remember the exact numbers. So that doesn't support your idea that earnings weren't a huge part of the reason stocks are up.
When you print money with zero concern, earnings ALWAYS grow. Quite a few developed economies are now approaching 10% inflation. Yes, totally normal, nothing to see here.
It's a gray scale whether market is overvalued and not so obvious otherwise everyone will become rich timing the market.
Markets will have another 50% correction at some point as everyone panics and looks to exit as the same time. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. VIX jumps to 50+, S&P starts losing 250pts a day. Doesn't take long to wipe out 50% off the indicies at that rate. Just nobody can say when it will happen.
The question is what will be the "safe haven" trade when the collapse comes? In the Feb/March 2020 collapse bonds didn't really act like a safe haven. It was actually the USD and in a delayed manner big tech. The Fed was buying Munis because there value had collapsed 20-30%. Interest rate on Munis skyrocketed during the collapse.