even this little detail is ready... they pushed it down during oct-dec by 20.01% so technically this is a new bull market right now! I have asked these questions many times - find me another asset class high quality like the sp500 and forward yielding ~6%; and what the f are people waiting for... SP should be at 5000 right now. also in 2016 I created a thread called 'are we gonna run out of shares'. nobody could answer these questions.
Add stimulus to the equation and that sounds like 2009. Of course we've all seen engineered melt-ups... unless you started trading last week.
Haha, a melt-up ? They look at tea leaves, charts and they " understand " what's coming... Collateral in Money Markets has been deteriorating really bad, amount of negative yielding Treasuries in the world are at 11.8 Trillion US, that's a shit load of useless " collateral "... All those BBB Bonds being used as collateral right now, what happens when they get junked ? Or Junk Bonds being refused now as collateral for Eurodollar funding ? Without collateral there is no trust, and without trust there is no credit, and without credit there is no leverage... Eurodollar Money Markets operates outside of the US jurisdiction and has no oversight, nobody has any idea of who owes what, just massive amounts of money created and lent through fractional banking based on " Collateral "... When that collateral turns to shit, and lending stops, Institutions have to sell assets to meet funding requirements, and with information spread in this day and age, it won't take more then a day for the world to know when it goes bust, then panics ensues due to masssive amount of Derivatives and Lehman follows This is the type of collapse that might actually kill Capitalism, it will be one gigantic fucking blow up... They will print so much money, I doubt any deflation will happen in this depression except for Housing and Oil ( short period ). You think the Dems are fucked now ? They are winning 2020, it's impossible Trump wins. The size of the bailout itself will cost him 2020, and Dems will be filled with a very angry voting base, take from the rich mob mentality... This collapse has a lot more at stake then just the Economy, clearly Central Bankers are aware of this, fear has gripped them. Unfortunately ppt and CB's across the world can buy as much Indexes as they want pumping stocks making everything seem great to the sheep, but when Money Market blows up, given the size right now it's all over. Deutsche Bank has market cap of 14 Billion and 1.6 Trillion in Assets... That's just one clown among many that are leveraged to the tits
Here's what you posted at the end of 2018: "Ill post my results at end 2019....the economy isn't gonna crash in 2019, HY bonds are gonna get obliterated in 2019, am I wrong ?" https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/theyre-changing-the-narrative-already.328356/page-3 Care to give a mid-year report on how much money your "trading for doomsday" approach has lost so far in 2019?
BIS report from June 2018 https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-geography-of-dollar-funding-of-non-us-banks-201901071552
To check the economy, I watch Transportation Index. If it is declining, less being transported and thereby sold.
How are your short positions doing? Still short the high yield etf and all the other assets you talked about being short?
the 2000 bubble was only 19 years old so plenty people have seen one. the difference though... 2000 was driven by demand.. everybody got excited with online trading and this internet thing was amazing... there was no lack of IPOs but the prices kept climbing... too much money rushing in. I think this one will be driven by supply.. not much IPOs going on... and corporations have been canceling shares.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-19/china-s-lehman-moment-is-drawing-closer https://www.journalpioneer.com/busi...ges-for-cash-as-money-markets-tighten-323897/ Interbank rates for banks were close at 3.5% on Monday, but traders said the cost was as high as 8% in the over-the-counter broader interbank market that includes non-bank participants. The rate hit 15% at one point last week. The interbank 14-day rate for all participants hit 6% on Wednesday morning, compared with 3.4% on the exchange. "Many banks now require non-bank financial institutions to use government bonds or negotiable certificates of deposits NCDs) issued by state-owned companies as collateral, and not all the AAA-rated corporate bonds are accepted," said a second trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai. China's securities watchdog has urged large non-bank financial institutions to lend in the interbank market to smaller non-bank firms to help ease any cash shortfalls. The central bank has also injected more cash into the banking system while regulators have repeatedly downplayed the risks at small financial institutions. Analysts at OCBC Bank said smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions were struggling though, and unable to access funding even though the interbank bank repo market was stable. A third trader at a Chinese bank in Guangdong province said most banks would sail smoothly through the end of the first-half but some non-bank financial institutions would feel the pain. "There's no way for those who hold 'rotten' notes to survive the quarter-end this time," the trader said, referring to institutions who hold lower-rated debt. china's securities watchdog urged non banks to lend in interbank markets to other non banks ? Hahaha gameeeee over!!!! Collateral no longer good in lil china, nobody wants their shit bonds, not even their own banks... Jerome " The Birdman " Powell better come out with doves flying! Not looking good in money markets right now, not looking good...