This site is flooded with wannabes and those of truly low intellect when it comes to arguing a point in coherent and logical fashion. Trading draws in more iq-undercapitalized humans than the lottery gambling addicts or a vodka bottle alcoholics.
Well, sure as long as you copy/paste others' comments on China all day long it's hard to not sometimes post reality related content. But it's not his content, he just plagiarizes all day long without attribution to any sources and the little brainfarts of his are completely removed from any reality. He is an arrogant prick who dares puts up trades but can't admit later on how wrong he was. If he traded a live account he would have lost an incredible amount of his funding by now.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/chinas-lehman-moment-is-about-to-arrive-cm1165852 Bloomberg has published a very interesting article arguing that China's economy and financial system might be on the edge of implosion. The publication mentions that the government's bailout of Baoshang Bank last month has put money markets on edge, and for the first time, short-term lending between big institutions has started to freeze up. For the first time in decades, lenders are facing the prospect of defaults and haircuts on loans to other financial institutions. This has led funding costs for companies to shoot higher. The Biggest Lie Ever Told... china's Economy! The greatest thesis ET has ever seen
I agree. He must have me on ignore (if that's a feature here). We last interacted in late Dec. when he made several personal attacks then finally "agreed" to post his 2019 results at the end of the year. At this point a good bot could do what he's doing (copy/paste news articles then put one or 2 sentences together confirming them). I just wrote that to say what he posts isn't always wrong...it's just his conclusions are extremely biased.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-19/meanwhile-china-echoes-lehman-interbank-market-freezes Some more background: in China, the funding flow goes like this (per Bloomberg): big national banks lend to smaller regional lenders, which then provide financing to non-bank peers such as brokerages and funds. They in turn use the money to invest in corporate bonds. “Smaller banks play a key role in this chain,” said Ming Ming, chief fixed-income analyst of Citic Securities Co. Right now investors are quite "risk averse and everyone wants to mitigate counterparty risks. If things get worse, China’s financial market liquidity could collapse,” he added. In this context, the issue of NCD funding is especially troublesome, because as Bloomberg reported recently, in the aftermath of the Baoshang seizure, some Chinese banks and securities firms "tightened requirements for negotiable certificates of deposits that are used as collateral for funding." In some cases, private NCDs were shunned altogether, and some financial institutions now only accept NCDs sold by state-owned and joint stock banks as collateral while some have refused to lend money to investors pledging NCDs issued by lenders rated AA+ and below for now. Worse, as Bloomberg followed up over the weekend, the interbank market is now also freezing up as a result of counterparty suspicions: one month after Baoshang, Chinese bond traders in China are "rethinking counterparty risks as shock waves from a government takeover of a bank ripple through the country’s financial markets." NCD's no longer accepted cause their fake, and chinese bonds no longer taken in Eurodollar Markets or even china Interbank Markets... Ouuuuu weee! Kau tau wumao
You can find enough information on the internet, published by enough “subject matter experts” - to justify ANY hypothesis you care to posit. Doesn’t matter how outrageous. And still only about 50 traders (Likely far fewer according to Michael Lewis) foresaw and took advantage of the subprime market crash in 2008. And they’re freaking mortgages - with trillions of notional dollars worth of turnover and with hundreds of thousands of “professionals” making their livings in marketing, processing, writing, analyzing, and trading the things.
Same thing with Technical Analysis - you can make a case for anything (especially if you include worse than useless analyses like wave counts [Elliott and Gann never work in real time]). Which is why I recommended the OP pursue statistical time series modeling and NOT T/A.
I expect US stock market would collapse sooner or later. Note potential Weekly 'Double Repo' sell pattern by Joe Dinapoli. If it happens, it may become a huge drop and can give you a great opportunity to make money..... </NQ Weekly>
Of course it will. All markets do. The obvious problem is that you will run out of capital trying to time the thing.
Word on the street is that Tokyo is a big hub for US Dollar Distribution... China was the biggest client in Money Markets for Japan, now that china collateral shit the bed and hits Japan, they will sell offshore assets to cover hit at home... Japanese Yen will get a lot stronger with china fading and credit markets will go out of wack in the US. Japan and Pension funds own US Corporate debt Very interesting times in the economy, so many things happening right now. The recovery will be interesting as well