With all this talk of "Supply Chain" issues, suggesting supply-SIDE problems, I can't help but wonder if it's really on the demand side. Have others stopped spending, or is it just me? Have Americans stopped consuming?! Are all those boats camped in the ocean because they simply don't have space for the stuff--they're backlogged? Has demand evaporated (except for Amazon, of course)? Here in the new normal, I look at my own personal spending drastically reduced: 1. No commuting and office costs, including food, lunch, coffee, clothing, dry cleaning, travel, parking, etc. 2. Lowered driving costs. My car sits in the garage most of the time. I have a 10-year old Honda; I was going to get something new, but why? I've put 9000 miles on it in the last two years. 3. I don't go out anywhere near as much, because things are closed, or they have mask/vax rules in place. 4. I used to be a member of the Met in NYC, go out to eat at least three times a week. With most of the city boarded up, I've gone maybe three times in the past two years. 5. I don't travel/fly anymore. I was going to go to Denver for a C++ conference, but deferred it to next year (maybe) if and when this whole thing blows over. I'm just not consuming like I did. Some days I don't leave my block, or even leave the house, and don't spend a penny. Take yesterday for example: I got up, went for a walk, back to my workstation, worked all morning, made coffee at home, cooked up some chicken for lunch, back to work until evening, took another walk, a nap, finished the rest of the dish I cooked, back to my workstation to set up a Wordpress site for a friend, and went to bed. Never spent a penny, outside of utilities to keep things running. Are you spending at the same rate that you did in 2019? --Keith
%% 0$+ 0% for airline tickets; 0$ + 0% for ETFs comissions. About the same average for home coffee+ MCD coffee; less for birdseed, but i favor plenty of plants for wild birdseed. I use more colored pens in my trading notebook , but i find most of those or pick them up of the ground /LOL Average more for ammo; but i sold more empty brass then ever. MY HMC 4 cylinder seldom uses much gasoline. =======================I do spend/invest more for ETFs, but mostly with the main trend + some coutertrend
Keith there's a very simple answer to your hypothesis, have you tried going out? Look at the bolded, of course you don't think anyone's spending when you don't even see them spend.
It's an interesting question. Do you have a wife? I have been seeing all these large boxes come in marked "Dior" Of course everything you do buy costs more so even though you are consuming less you are apt to be spending about the same. Have you heard of Doordash/ Jesus Christ these guys are putting me in the poor house. Less dining out means more ordering in.. fees and taxes everywhere. There are two areas of consumption here that matter- Your consumption at home and your consumption when you business travel or vacation travel-- and in that second area is the big draw down. And why folks have cash to burn. No vacations! Very little business travel-- those are both huge hits to the credit card spending. I myself have been buying at Auction now and then trying to find value. I just bought a print for $1,500 that I know sells for $3K+. I've been smoking a lot more so money there.. drinking more than usual money there.. eating poorly money there... still working out 2X a week money there, still going to a few NY Knicks games money there, I'm streaming more than ever, money to Hulu Money To HBO money To Netflix money money money... Gas is very expensive. Doing small repairs on the house very expensive. Getting people to dig holes in Ct for bulbs Very Expensive... Inflation is making up for what you are not consuming Keith. ! ~ stoney
Ordered new pants from Amazon because I gained weight (Staying home I'm not wearing anything out except t-shirts and warmups). It took 3 weeks to get here instead of 3 days.
shopping at walgreen halloween stuff, custom shevel mostly are empty. ordered a travel coffee mug on aliexpress in september for less than $9, still haven't received it, whereas on amazon, the same one costs $59.99, which is in stock I think.
Visited (what used to be) a mid-priced Mexican restaurant last night around 7:30pm. Front of the house staffing seemed fine. Overall, it looked like about 60% occupancy. No ala carte appetizers or deserts, 2 fajita platos (1 pollo, 1 carnitas), 2 ice teas... $45. Tax and tip, all-in, $60. Used to be $45 all-in.
The answer to your questions, I would say, is NO. Talk to people in the wholesale and retail businesses. They will tell you they are waiting longer for orders to ship, and they are only receiving a fraction of what they ordered. This will end. But when. Lifting some tariffs should be of help in containing costs, but I don't see it helping much with the current shipping bottleneck. We will be past the pandemic by 2022 provided we get virtually universal vaccination mandates and there is no backsliding. Then it is only a matter of months until we are out of this phase. Your habit of staying home will soon be forgotten. You are a social creature by nature. You can't change that. (I mean the collective "You" here. You personally could be a hermit for all I know. Did you get your booster yet? I got mine. Had a slight twelve hour reaction, low grade fever , fatigue, arm a little sore. This was welcome. Tells me my immune system is working. I had no reaction at all to the first two jabs. My neighborhood bar just reopened -- a good sign. Mixed drinks old price = $5.50; new price = $9. )