As you mentioned, if the subsidies were eliminated, then NAFTA would have been great for the farmers. This wasn't the main purpose of NAFTA though. It was to create a better climate for manufacturers down south. However, the competition from overseas is really hurting the Mexican people on that point. Subsidies are a problem that neither political party wants to address though. Both are friends of the farmers. Both sides claim to want to help the family farm, which we know is a sham because the family farms get very little.
Excellent Commentary All ............................................................................ The next incredulous blunder is CAFTA... A very large percentage of the Latin populations are in marginal agriculture... It is conservative to estimate that the majority of these people will be permanently displaced by subsidized American agriculture...which in itself is a sham because the majority of the benefits go to the farmers that are in the 5% upper tier in income in the US.... The solution being possibly that since globalization demands comparative advantages...very possibly this means narrowing out all but local indigenous crops...and possibly conversion to sugar cane production for energy production... However the grains and shelf dairy products are going to be produced by the US....
. September 26, 2006 SouthAmerica: Yesterday I was watching CNBCâs Power Lunch program when they mentioned the collapse of some ethanol stocks in the USA and they did show a chart of a few stocks from that industry. One stock had been trading at $ 45 per share in May 2006, and yesterday the same stock was trading at $ 13 per share. The other stock was the same story â down drastically. Then they mentioned the article published over the weekend by Barronâs newspaper â âThe Bad Brazilian Exampleâ by Thomas G. Donlan. I decided to check that article since they had mentioned on CNBC for the entire trading world to see it. I got a copy of the article last night and after reading it I realized that a better name to that article would have been: âA Very Bad Article Published by Barronâs.â The information given in that article about Brazil was completely inaccurate. I was very disappointed by the quality of the information used on that article and I would expect something better than that from a newspaper with the reputation of Barronâs. It seems to me that some of the information used on that article regarding the Brazilian economy was lifted from the CIA The World Factbook which I listed below. But many of these figures are out of date and have not been up dated with the latest data available from the Brazilian government and various other sources of information in Brazil. They used a poverty rate from 1998 on that article. They used an inflation rate that is double than the actual inflation rate in Brazil in 2006. (See Bloomberg news info below) When the author of the article on Barronâs mentioned the breakdown of energy sources in Brazil â he never mentioned that Brazil gets 4 percent of its energy from its nuclear power plants. He did not mention also that billions of dollars are being invested to develop natural gas production in Brazil and that will bring energy from natural gas up to 15 % of total energy consumption. The Barronâs writer made the point to say that Firewood is 8 percent of total energy consumption in Brazil. I guess he came to that conclusion as follows: Half of Brazil is the Amazon jungle. There are thousands of native Indians living inside that jungle, since they still live on the stone age and they must use firewood to cook their meals. We know that these native Brazilian Indians are not using, oil, natural gas, ethanol, and electric power from the various sources - in conclusion they must be using firewood instead which is a source of energy that is readily available around the jungle. I just hope people who heard the CNBC report yesterday, did not read the article on Barronâs and decided to dump their investments in the ethanol industry based on that article. The information about Brazil was so poorly researched that it takes any credibility from the entire article. I hope CNBC will bring to the attention of their audience that the article that they mentioned on the air was inaccurate and that investors should do further research on that subject before they decide what to do regarding their investments on the ethanol industry. Since CNBC has the resources and the responsibility to its audience of providing accurate information when people are using real money to invest when they see information provided by CNBC on their television programs â I would suggest that CNBC spend a little money and send one of its main reporters to Brazil to do a full analysis of the energy policy and its implementation in Brazil, covering the ethanol industry, flex-fuel cars, all the other vehicles such as police, ambulance, fire truck engines, busses and so on that use natural gas as its source of energy. I know that there are many lobbying groups that want to give misinformation to the American consumer including the oil and gas industry, the corn industry, and so on â these groups want the US energy industry to keep going on its current path as long as they can get away it. The author of the Barronâs article did not mention that Brazil had to import 40 percent of its oil needs only ten years ago, but today because of these many changes in Brazilian energy policy today Brazil for the first time on its history will be able to export oil to other countries instead of importing it. He mentioned on his article that: â Brazil has always been something of a disappointment.â But right now the biggest disappointment it is that Barronâs has published such a poorly researched article, and basically for all practical purposes that Barron's article is useless information. *********** CIA â The World Factbook - Brazil: Population: 188,078,227 (July 2006 est.) GDP - real growth rate: 2.4% (2005 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP): $8,400 (2005 est.) Unemployment rate: 9.8% (2005 est.) Population below poverty line: 22% (1998 est.) Inflation rate (consumer prices): 6.9% (2005 est.) Industrial production growth rate: 3.4% (2005 est.) Electricity - production: 387.5 billion kWh (2004) Electricity - consumption: 359.6 billion kWh (2004) Oil - production: 2.01 million bbl/day (2005 est.) Oil - consumption: 1.61 million bbl/day (2004) Source: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/br.html ***************** Since the 1970âs Brazil has continued to receive West German nuclear technology. Nuclear Power Plant Information from International Atomic Energy Agency- (IAEA) Nuclear Power Reactors: ANGRA â 1 in Rio de Janeiro ANGRA â 2 in Rio de Janeiro Source: http://www.iaea.or.at/programmes/a2/ Nuclear Power represents about 4 % of total Electrical Power Production in Brazil (2005) **** Nuclear Power in Brazil June 2006 · Brazil has two nuclear reactors generating 4% of its electricity. · Its first commercial nuclear power reactor began operating in 1982. Electricity consumption in Brazil has grown strongly since 1990. Per capita consumption is 2235 kWh/yr. Nuclear energy provides 4% of the country's electricity - about 13 billion kWh per year. About 40% of Brazil's electricity is produced by the national Eletrobras* system. About 30% of electricity is from state-owned utilities, and 20% from the 12.6 GWe Itaipu hydro scheme on the Paraguayan border. About 9% is from autoproducers and private generators. Source: World Nuclear Association http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf95.htm **************** Bloomberg News â September 25, 2006 âBrazil Economists Cut 2007 Inflation Forecast to 4.3% â By Fabio Alves Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian economists lowered their inflation forecasts for this year and next, helping pave the way for the central bank to cut the benchmark lending rate more than previously expected. Economists reduced their forecast for 2007 inflation for a third week, lowering it to 4.3 percent from 4.34 percent a week earlier, according to the median estimate from about 100 financial institutions surveyed on Sept. 22 by the central bank. Economists reduced their 2006 inflation forecast to 3.03 percent from 3.23 percent. The economists' forecasts -- a report central bankers have indicated they follow -- are below the government's 4.5 percent annual target. That widening gap between economists' forecasts and the government's target will prompt the central bank to cut the benchmark lending rate another 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point, in its last two policy meetings this year, said Italo Lombardi, a Latin America economist at IdeaGlobal. ``As inflation expectations for this year and next show continued improvement, the central bank may cut rates more aggressively,'' Lombardi said in a telephone interview from New York. He said a decline in international oil prices will help push Brazil's inflation rate down to 2.8 percent this year. Inflation slowed to 3.8 percent in the 12 months through August, the lowest annual rate since 1999, as a currency rally pushed down the cost of imported goods. Growth The central bank has cut the benchmark overnight rate 5.5 percentage points since September 2005 to 14.25 percent, the lowest in at least 20 years, to bolster growth in Latin America's biggest economy. In the survey, economists also reduced their year-end forecast for the overnight rate to 13.5 percent from 13.75 percent the previous week. They now expect central bankers to lower the benchmark rate a half percentage point at the next policy meeting on Oct. 17-18, compared with a quarter-point cut forecast the previous week, the survey showed. Economists held their year-end 2007 forecast for the benchmark rate at 12.5 percent. Lombardi forecasts a year-end 2007 rate of 12 percent. The economists also lowered their 2006 economic growth forecast to 3.09 percent from 3.11 percent a week earlier, the central bank survey showed. Brazil's economy expanded 1.15 percent in the second quarter from the year-earlier period after growing 3.3 percent in the first quarter. To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Alves in Brasilia at Falves3@bloomberg.net Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a8Vl6PBumceY&refer=latin_america ******* Unemployment in Brazil for year 2006 has been going up from 8.2 % in Janâ06 to the current rate of about 8.8 %. Source: http://www.latin-focus.com/latinfocus/countries/brazil/braunemp.htm .
Excellent Commentary ........................................................................................... Barrons...Forbes...Money...Fortune...etc... Are for entertainment and public suasion... I have always been amused by public suasion in that some people will read an article and believe in it without knowing anything about the author or making any other inquiries as to whether or not the information is good or bad... Most careful publications will qucite 3rd party resources---however the resources are certainly subject to the garbage in garbage out syndrome... Developing countries that have high numbers of poor people believe in one thing....PRICE.... If there were no advantageous efficiencies present in Brazilian ethanol production then its relatively poor population would not use it...as they are very price sensitive... Just look at the richer US...you have a few days of easy price movements in oil and they are already condemning alternative energy ... This goes to show what the public is really going to think about when oil is $50 or lower... The fact that ethanol is highly utilized and has advanced in a relatively poor country is very telling....
Here's a good summary article with pros and cons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_in_Brazil
. October 5, 2006 SouthAmerica: Here is another major economic advantage that Brazil will have in the next 25 years when compared with the United States regarding the government costs incurred with the population aged 65 and older. â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦....â¦..Population Age 65 and Older â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.......â¦(in Millions of people) Countryâ¦â¦â¦...Year 2000â¦â¦â¦â¦Year 2030 Brazilâ¦â¦â¦ â¦â¦....â¦....9â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.29 United Statesâ¦â¦..â¦.35â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.72 *** â¦â¦â¦â¦....â¦â¦..Population Age 80 and Older â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.......â¦(in Millions of people) Countryâ¦â¦..â¦...Year 2000â¦â¦â¦â¦Year 2030 Brazilâ¦â¦â¦â¦.......â¦â¦.1.4..â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..5.7 United Statesâ¦â¦. â¦..9.3â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..19.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau â Report December 2005 When we talk about costs related to ageing that a government has to incur the group where you find the largest portion of expenditures is the group referred to "the old/old" the group of people aged 80 and older. This group is a budget killer, and they require a ton of money all the time. As you can see by the above numbers estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau the number of people over age 80 is going more than double in the United States in the next 24 years. The numbers also show that the United States will have to carry the costs of "4 times" more people age 80 and older than Brazil. In another words this will give Brazil a major cost advantage when compared with the United States. The reality is this sect of the population â the people aged 80 and older â generates a lot of costs to a country including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. (the Medicaid expenditure figures go off the chart, because a lot of the people on this group needs nursing home care, and nursing home expenditures is paid out of the Medicaid budget.) In Brazil we donât have a developed nursing home system similar to the American system â In Brazil the majority of families still take care of the senior members of their family when needed. You can read about the ageing of the United States population on another thread on this forum at: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=77858 The ageing of their respective populations will affect the United States much harder than in Brazil â since in the United States the American population expect that the United States government would absorb all these costs related to ageing in America. We are talking about a ton of money that the United States government will have to spend year after year â decade after decadeâ¦â¦ .
So despite the fact the number of elderly are going to grow at a significantly higher rate in Brazil then in the US, you think the costs associated with the elderly are going to grow at a faster rate in the US because traditionally Brazilians have taken care of their elderly with smaller government subsidies? Is this a joke? If not, that is a horribly constructed argument. I think everyone can accept that some percentage of the elderly in both countries live off some sort of government welfare. Since Brazil's elderly population is growing so much faster, I don't see any reason why the percentage of people who receive welfare in Brazil will not be at least equal, if not greater then the number of people who receive it in the US. Additionally, comparing the total numbers of elderly is silly too. Without an idea of what percentage of the population they will comprise (i.e. how large the tax base supporting them will be), relative levels of taxation, what sort of obligations the government would possibly take on the elderly's behalf (would they ever provide nursing care? or would they allow the elderly to die in the streets?), and what resources are available to them (the newer medical treatments will obviously be more expensive), you are comparing two completely different things. This argument seems as ill conceived as your other arguments... except maybe the dollar/euro one. That one was just bizarre. Weren't you calling for 1.60 by the end of the year? //You and libertad have remarkably similar writing styles. //Have the moderators ever checked IPs on these two?
. davidlynch2000: This argument seems as ill conceived as your other arguments... ********** October 5, 2006 SouthAmerica: On my second book published in 1999 I had extensive information regarding the demographic make up of Brazil and the United States, and the economic impact of such demographic differences and customs will have when we compare both countries. I also mentioned in the book how in the coming years this difference in demographics was going to become an economic advantage to Brazil starting in the coming years with the aging of the Baby Boomer generation in the United States. â¦â¦â¦â¦....â¦â¦..Population Age 80 and Older â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦.......â¦(in Millions of people) Countryâ¦â¦..â¦...Year 2000â¦â¦â¦â¦Year 2030 Brazilâ¦â¦â¦â¦.......â¦â¦.1.4..â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..5.7 United Statesâ¦â¦. â¦..9.3â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦â¦..19.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau â Report December 2005 You can do your own research â just download the latest figures available from both governments related to the demographic breakdown by age group of the population of both countries. The population in Brazil does not receive the degree of help and services that Americans receive from its government in the USA. The entire budget of the Brazilian government is around $ 140 billion US dollars per year (this budget has been increasing in terms of US dollars, because the US currency has been losing value against the Brazilian real.) This is a Brazilian government budget to take care of everything in Brazil â the things that require federal government money. Compare that with the annual budget of the US government of $ 3 trillion US dollars â including the annual deficit. The United States has so much debt on its books that the federal government has to pay in interest alone over $ 300 billion US dollars in interest to the people who lent money to the US government. This annual interest payment by the US government represents double the amount the Brazilian government needs to run its annual budget to run the Brazilian economy. The longevity of Americans is much higher than the longevity of Brazilians, and there are many reasons for that. At the end of the day Americans are living much longer than Brazilians are today. The group that requires most money from the government is the population aged 80 and older â Today Brazil has only 1.5 million people on that category compared with the United States 10 million people. In the immediate future letâs say by the year 2015 Brazil still going to have only 3.5 million people aged 80 or older compared with the United States 14.5 million people in that category. When the Brazilians reach the age of 80 years old they are very close to the end of the life span. But when Americans reach the age of 80 a large number of this group hangs on into their 90âs. The group of âold/oldâ the people who are age 80 and older live a much longer life in the United States than the comparable group in Brazil. You can raise all kinds of questions regarding this fact â but at the end of the day Brazil will have to spend a lot less money to take care of its senior population than the United States. Unless the US starts giving raw spinach from California to the old folks in the US â that strategy would help fix the problems of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. PS: Keep also in mind that Brazil has been paying all its international debts and today Brazil has less than $ 100 billion US dollars in outstanding international debt. In the other hand the United States has been mortgaging its future and today the United States has a âEverest Mountainâ of international debt outstanding â in the trillions of US dollars. And the United States continues wasting a ton of money fighting wars around the world â Iraq is costing about $ 100 billion US dollars per year. Between pissing the money on defense spending and wasting tons of borrowed money fighting wars that are losing propositionsâ¦â¦â¦.. All I can say to you Mr. Lynch â you are in denial. By the way, I am not Libertad â I believe she is from another country in the Americas. Besides Libertad has been a member of this forum since April 2004, and I became a member of this Forum only on May 2005. Wrong again Mr. Lynch. .
I think this is really important because it may be the source of our misunderstanding. I don't really care whether I'm correct or incorrect. I'd just like a argument that is not farcically constructed. Comparing things like government expenditures is absolutely useless without taking into account government revenues and population size. It shows that you haven't clearly thought about the issue and are just spouting your nationalistic propaganda. If the US economy groans to a complete halt tomorrow, it won't matter to me. If the elderly overwhelm the US economy in the future, it won't matter to me. I don't have any ridiculous predictions stating that it/they will, and I have no particular vested interest in one country or another. I really don't have anything to be in denial about. I'd just like you to use a little common sense in your arguments, and you seem to think that you can overwhelm common sense by the sheer volume of your unrelated articles. I don't really care about what conclusions you come to. I care about the process you took to get there. Your process appears to be very flawed, and you seem to be having a great deal of trouble recognizing certain obvious characteristics of that. I would think that after being so horribly wrong about the dollar, you would go back and rethink the methodology (or in your case, lack of methodology) by which you come to conclusions. It definitely appears you have yet to do that. I stand by my lone public prediction. Phony economists who lack common sense and consistent, logical methodologies will be wrong in 2006. I still think your writing style and librted's writing style bear striking similarities.
. October 15, 2006 SouthAmerica: As Americans live in the past â and there is a complete disconnect between what is happening around the world and what Americans believe that is going on â the real world moves into the future. Brazzil Magazine - Wednesday, September 06, 2006 âWhile the American Dream Is Outsourced Brazil Drives the World into the Futureâ Written by Ricardo C. Amaral http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/9684/78/ *** âWhile China Rises the US Falls in Brazil and Latin Americaâ Published on June 2, 2005 http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/9296/76/ *** March 2005 â âOutsourcing is ruining the US and Brazilâs economyâ http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1821/49 ************** IBM is confirming one step at the time what I have been saying on my articles about IBM, outsourcing, and so onâ¦. IBM used to be the âsymbol of United States technological advanceâ to the world. Today IBM is a symbol of United States decline and the ascendancy of China in world affairs. IBM is saying: bye, bye USA (the US represents yesterday) and is moving into the future â into India and China. The actions taken by IBM since June 2006 speak volumes and are very clear, and they have signaled to the world that the USA represents the past and that India and China represents the future from the point of view of IBM. IBMâs real actions speak louder than 1,000 words. Quoting from above article in June 2006: âMr. Palmisano and other top executives will meet here with investment analysts and local customers to showcase IBM's global integration capabilities in a briefing customarily held in New York. During the week, the company will lead the 50 analysts on a tour of its Indian operations.â It did not take long for IBM to move another major piece of itself to Asia this time to China. In October 13, 2006 Forbes magazine published an article saying: âIBM is moving its global procurement headquarters to Shenzhen, China. It will be the first time the headquarters of a corporate-wide IBM division has been moved outside the U.S. â¦The move will involve both IBM's hardware and software businesses. By emphasizing software and services skills, it will make possible the development of new partners and suppliers. IBM, as a company, spends $45 billion a year with external suppliers.â ******** PS: If you want a little more detail the go to: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1233050#post1233050 .