Here’s the stock market’s biggest tail risk

Here’s the stock market’s biggest tail risk

Published: Mar 21, 2018

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...-in-stock-markets-bull-case-emerge-2018-03-20

‘Trade war’ biggest worry, says fund manager survey

 

Trade war is all talk .....

Until it happens or if it happens its nothing but hearsay!!

And what's really amusing is that a few weeks the phrase "trade war" was non existent in that list of market worries!!!

 

One component of the definition of tail risk is that was "non existent" and/or not on the radar.
...and BTW, "trade war" is always on economists radar.

 

stagflation.

 

I was just about to say the same...

It's not really a tail event if it's already on the cards and in part calculated into pricings...

 

I would think the greatest risk to the stock market is the much larger bond market crashing.

 

When is it crashing? The yield curve is already being adjusted... If the FED doesn't increase the rates dramatically, but just steady as she goes, it's not going to be a crash. That's the key... steady and slowly go to a normal economic situation.

Everybody have known for the past 4 years that normalization would be happening... and it is now... except for in Europe, they haven't really started yet.