Selling ES here - 1338's cost basis - covers at 1333.00 - 1328.00 - 1308.00 - 1283.00 Nothing like a good news reaction rally to fade - ES went to extreme out of balance open interest ratio with trade to 1339 level - signal for me to start selling rally from here.
I will fade ES trading above 1339 level today and hold into next week - I have a fixed dollar amount stop on this trade and I only have a partial position on to this point. I made excellent money fading 6E spike above 3200 level out of news - that was an very good sell off.
It's not out of nowhere. Normal steady bull trend up since Xmas. Every technical indicator said it was going higher, with only potential fundamental concerns capable of ending the rally. Earnings reports from technology were a positive catalyst not to be ignored, making the fundamantal backdrop debateable whether it was bullish or bearish. Strangely, most of EliteTrader's "trading" threads were about massive short positions, calling tops, and bogus "technical indicators" why markets should correct heavily. Exactly what was being posted in September 2010 btw if you like historical precedence. Almost every thread was some theme like this. Real technical analysis on S&P 500 would state major break of resistance in the 1290 to 1300 area, recent golden cross, and new potential resistance areas approx. 1350 and 1370.
It was outta nowhere. Unless you could accurate predict yesterday that price was going to open higher today, it was outta nowhere And if you can predict that stuff, you could make a lot of money :eek: Do you believe technical indicators can predict price movement? Ha, I agree with you that most traders, at least the vocal ones, are usually wrong. A few months ago everyone was freaking out about flash crashes and the Chinese taking over and I even made a thread telling everyone to relax: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=225023 Of course it got no love But here we are a few months later making new highs. Hmm, looks like the Chinese didn't take over.
My only posted trade the last 10 months was buy TSX in August at 11660, and since then reiterating that rebuying again at that area. I had a three hour window to buy ( for real ) at 11520 in December, and missed pulling the trigger. I sold my entire TSX position for cash last year at approx 13950. TSX has lagged the SPX last year and on this move after many years of outperforming the SPX. The resource sector seems pretty flat these days, and my fear of a gold sell off was the main reason I didn't buy TSX. I suppose in retrospect the SPX was a better play short term.
Another breakout... and the market thwarts the bears yet again. Pretty crazy that this has been going on for nearly 3 years. I remember in April 2009 when Cramer was on tv yelling "The bear market is over! It's over!" and everyone online was calling him an idiot. I didn't believe him either. LOL
nap day - no good rally of any significance above 1339 level - thats what happens when ES is out of held short open interest - makes it hard to rally even when equities is running buy programs all day. I was able to at least shift my cost basis for trade to 1340.75 - all covers set as before with no changes. I sold three DAX in the last minutes before 4:00 pm EST close with 6793 cost basis - looking to cover those at Monday 2:00 am EST open if we have any gap down open in DAX