For whom the bell TOL's. Toll Brothers' Record 1st Qtr Contracts Grow 60% to $1.44 Billion vs FY 2004 "Toll Brothers' Record 1st Qtr Contracts Grow 60% to $1.44 Billion vs FY 2004. Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, stated: `With our strong first quarter results, we are on track for the 40%-plus net income growth we have forecast for Fiscal Year 2005.'" --- First-quarter earnings on February 23, 2005 should be a doozy! Good to see the "housing is crashing threads" alive and well, only means these stocks are going one way, UP!
TOL trades at a tad below 17x earnings. DHI's P/E 10.30 LEN 11.66 PHM 9.36 I thought a bubble was when the valuations were far above an average or a universal index, the S&P500, one uses to measure against. Using bigcharts.com to get an idea of where these builders traded in the past, they're not priced at a premium to earnings. Gee, where's the bubble?
^^^^^^^^^^ Not exactly, but in our southern area, the bid/ask may remind you of the homebuilderes. [owner occupied]. Sure there are two [2 ]sides to every mountain/candle chart; and some will pay more to live with a mountain or hilly view, some may pay up for water nearby .
Little snippet from today's news: "Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reported sizable increases in home prices around the country for the final three months of 2004. The group's survey showed a record 62 areas recording double-digit increases in the median price of homes sold in the fourth quarter of last year when compared to the same period in 2003. The gains were led by a 47.3 percent jump in Las Vegas, Nev., which pushed the median price of a home there -- the point where half sold for more and half for less -- to $281,400. Nationally, the median price for an existing home rose by 8.8 percent to $187,500 in the final three months of last year." ----- I thought LV was crash city?
Funny....you keep smelling roses everywhere you go. Many others here just smell a turd (in the making). No doubt about it Convert, you are a realtor or other with an extremely vested interest. Las Vegas is toast, and it's been that way for months. Appreciation has ceased, and price cuts and empty homes are everywhere. http://www.kvvutv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2637422&nav=2NiwTjR3 Valley Home Buying Fallout (KVVU) -- The real estate boom that sent Las Vegas home prices skyrocketing may be over, but the hangover is only getting worse. The party for many people ended on October 2, 2004 when Pulte slashed prices at its four Las Vegas Del-Webb communities by 20%. The second-largest builder in the Las Vegas area said home prices had topped out and called it an appropriate move that will help new homeowners. But what about the ones who bought before the price cut? A number of small mom and pop investors bought homes in Sun City Anthem, in the builder's Solera and Pinnacle Village developments. They claim Pulte burned them by inflating it's home prices and steering them to in house lenders who were all too happy to underwrite their dreams. Were they victims of an overzealous sales force? Or their own expectations? Or a little of both? Dyan Harmell, a Pulte home buyer, is drowning in a sea of debt. Her living room table is covered with bills and she's not quite sure how to pay them. "There are bills everywhere. House payments and debt," Harmell told FOX5. She's a long way from those heady days of Las Vegas' real estate boom, when she says Pulte's sales staff pushed and pushed her to buy. "They call you and say 'you are so lucky .. this just came across.. it's going to be worth 100k before it closes,'"said Dyan Harmell. "We came with the hopes of buying two houses. We left the first day owning four. Within the next week, owning 6 -- all the way up to 19." But Harmell's story is not unique. Walk around Pulte's Solera neighborhood and it's a ghost town. It seems as if "For Sale" signs are everywhere. Signs that many people who thought they'd make a killing in Las Vegas' real estate market are now trying to unload homes at deep discounts. A group of these homeowners claim Pulte Del Webb created artificial demand for it's properties by a sales staff that created a sense of urgency partly through questionable lotteries. "We were told there were 80 people in the lottery for 15 homes. And lo and behold, every single person we knew got a home in that lottery,"said Pulte home buyer Cathy Wodka. Some of those "lucky" enough to get a house were then directed into questionable mortgages. Allegations that are the basis of at least one lawsuit with more expected. Pulte declined FOX5's request for an on-camera interview, citing the possible lawsuits. In a written statement, the builder claimed "None of our employees, agents or representatives is authorize to make any representations regarding economic benefits to be derived from ... the sale of our new homes." The buyers point to sales literature from Pulte Del Webb's Sun City's so-called collection offerings with a prominent red sticker promising price increases. Another brochure for three other home models lists closing prices next to it's base price. The message homeowners say they got - you'll make money before you close. Pulte called it a way of showing the "savings a buyer can realize by buying a home that is nearing completion." Matt Di Orio works for Nevada's Real Estate Division. Di Orio says Pulte home buyers have contacted his office about Pulte's sales techniques. While he won't make any judgements, he says Nevada statutes are clear about what real estate sellers can and can't say. "In fact, there's a certain disciplinary action that could result in guaranteeing profits in the future," said Matt Di Orio. But what the sales literature didn't mention was a coming 20% price cut. Buyers like Howard Jos-Berger were left with a home that dropped $100,000 dollars in value a few days after he bought it. "The sales manager admitted to us that he knew the prices were going to be lowered on the 27th . . . the day we closed," said Jos-Berger. As for Harmell, she's trying to figure out how to make December's payment of $30,000. "For the last year I've had my whole family at risk. My mother, who's 83, my daughter. It's a lot of pressure on me. I thought I was being smart but they outsmarted me," Harmell told FOX5. Did the company create demand and price hikes for it's new homes before cutting prices on October 2nd? That's the basis for one lawsuit and the allegations coming from a group of investors. They claim Pulte set up a system which seemingly approved anyone and everyone for a mortgage. Marty and Jan Moss bought two Pulte Del-Webb homes as investments and are now trying to unload one of them before it tanks the couple financially. "I was surprised we were approved for all these homes and I bet if we were applied for two or three more, they would have approved them," said Jan Moss, a Pulte home buyer. The Moss' and other Pulte home buyers, who are now out hundreds of thousands of dollars after Pulte slashed it's prices, claim they were duped by what they say were artificially high prices. Prices supported by some apparently questionable loans. Dyan Harmell bought 19 homes with 4-million dollars in mortgage debt. Pulte's in-house lender continued to sell her homes even as she showed a loss on her rental income . . . her sole income. "They had me close Monday, Wed, Friday on two houses each so it wouldn't show up on my credit report," said Harmell. In her sales agreement, Harmell agreed to sue an in-house lender or pay $5,000 more per home - a violation of federal law. In Pulte's written statement to FOX5, the home builder called the clause in Harmell's contract a mistake "that was corrected" and that home buyers are under no obligation to use it's mortgage company. But buyers Charlie and Cathy Wodka told FOX5 a different story. "We were told we had to use Pulte Mortgage and Pulte farmed us out," Cathy stated. Attorney Sean Claggett's office filed suit against Pulte and he's representing a dozen other buyers in what he expects will be legal action against the home builder, it's lenders and appraisers. "Pulte homes gave incentives to use Pulte Mortgage. Pulte Mortgage would receive a one percent fee for transferring the loan to preferred lenders, those preferred lenders would come back with an appraisal that would match the price that Pulte homes was selling," said Sean Claggett. Scott Bice, commissioner of Nevada's Mortgage Lending Division, says home buyers share some of the blame for getting into questionable mortgages. "It's tough for me to hear consumers say 'I've been harmed, I've been harmed.' When, in fact, they have some responsibility to say NO," said Bice. But it appears saying no wasn't a part of the discussion between Pulte, it's lenders and buyers looking to get in on a hot market.
"We came with the hopes of buying two houses. We left the first day owning four. Within the next week, owning 6 -- all the way up to 19."--Pulte home buyer Greed, plain and simple. I hope the lawsuit gets thrown out of court. These people have to take some responsibility for their actions. No one forced her buy 19 homes...it's ridiculous.
I hope so too. Otherwise, there no desperate sellers when tide really turns and capitalism wont be allowed to run its course. No bureaucratic intervention on behalf of the "berieved" buyer please. Mr. Zen
Not a realtor, a realist. Homebuilders still trade at a discount to earnings compared to the S&P500. We still have a housing shortage out there: