remember that ceo two weeks ago saying this is only the beginning shorts are going to suffer pain, meanwhile c.. sucker was selling size.
...I do remember that and I was disgusting because I was watching the insider selling in TOL as he was saying that...same scumbags, different market. Amazing how these guys just get away with whatever they want. I believe the 2 Toll brothers at the head of the co. have sold more shares (dollar wise) than the company's revenue in the 4th Q. SCUMbags.
You're absolutely right...it's not much of a chart. Part of the problem is what SteveD mentions above, that there is no particular uniformity in the real estate "market". We don't know what a "3 bedroom house" sells for, because it sells for one thing in the suburbs, another thing downtown, one price in one subdivision versus another. So what the real estate people have done is come up with this "median price". Now, even that concept is flawed in a way because what a median price was years ago is different today because as time has gone along houses have been built differently, bigger, more expensively, different amenities, etc etc...thus raising the median price. So if you compare today's median price with the median price 10 years ago, you aren't comparing apples to apples. There has likely been appreciation of course...but maybe not to the extent that the figures would show because of the change in the way that a house is built. All in all, the chart is not like a chart that we look at everyday on a stock. In fact, the chart does not exist for real estate like what we see in a stock because the uniformity is not there in real estate. That said, with all it's flaws, I think the chart does give some information. For instance, we know that on a nationwide basis for the period covered real estate has never gone down. And keep in mind that this period covers the early 80's when interest rates went to 20%. We can also see that nationwide gains were higher back in the 70's than they are now....which is interesting since everyone is calling this period a "bubble". What doesn't show is that California real estate went down in the 90's. Texas and Colorado in the 80's. In other words, regional declines, not nationwide. But if you want to use this chart like you might use a stock chart, it really isn't the same thing. OldTrader
Granted, the real estate market is illiquid, opaque, inefficient and highly segmented. But it is still a market. Willing sellers meet willing buyers and exchange real assets at a price determined by supply and demand. If that's not a market, what is it? In any case, you have merely raised a question of vocabularly, in which, as it happens, you are wrong. The really interesting question though is what conclusions you can draw from your observations about the housing market. The only conclusion you seem to have drawn is that it's not a market. Fine, I don't care what word you use. What is your point? Martin
Oldtrader and youngtraders; Ran those helpful chart numbers past another nationwide mortgage broker/manager this week ; he agrees with long term trend average appreciation of about 6%. Dont want to shatter anyone's random opinion however ; he believes in trends also. Also asked him, noting he preferes conventional 30 year , best & underperforming areas in USA. Best appreciating areas , in his nationwide experience, alphabetical order; Arizona,Florida,New Mexico, Nevada. Underperforming areas; Kentucky=3% average annual appreciation Michigan=3.5%appreciation, some parts=1%, Tennessee=3%, Virginia=3% No doubt there are areas in all those which do better than average. or worse for highly motivated/panic sellers. Not necessarly equal , but saw same thing in strength & weakness in homebuilders last week, big differences-same sector.
murray, Could you give a little more detail about the differences you saw in homebuilders last week? I'm away from my office and it's not too convenient for me to pull charts.
Lennar hikes full-year earnings outlook Q1 profit up 39% as homebuilder wields 'pricing power' "These record results were driven by strength in our homebuilding operations, which generated strong margins resulting from our pricing power in land-constrained markets," said Stuart Miller, president and chief executive, in a statement. Miller noted Lennar's $6 billion backlog as underscoring his view that "we remain well positioned for future growth." --------And KB Home quarterly revenues higher Strong housing market fuels 21% growth "Our robust net order growth and expanding backlog confirm the potential of our existing operations, many of which are positioned in markets where demand continues to outpace supply," said Chief Executive Bruce Karatz in a statement. ------------------------- Choo Choo Baby!
^^^^^^^ AAA; Longterm trendwise, homebuilders and owner occupied are as strong as steel; matter of fact some non Wall Street homebuilders use steel sometimes for 2x4 pine/spruce substitute. Medium trendwise, cut a loss on TOL derivatives last friday; tightened up stops on another homebuilder leader this week , the very best trends may not hit a tightened stop, for a while. Since homebuilders leaders arent in the best of med moves now; not suprised -specialist hit my mental, written stop @ profit. A bit more slippage than usual market order ,tells something about supply/demand also. Homebuilder stocks probably will move up again???; right now theyre not as strong as oil/gas sector. Spell checker just told me to change homebuilders to householders; that depends on time frame, long term both are still up.
Sales of new homes 2nd highest level "Sales of new homes jumped about 9.4 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.226 million, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The median sales price rose by 5.1 percent year-over-year to $230,700 in February. The average sales price rose 9.2 percent to $288,400. Prices are going up for one reason, Rassman said: Demand is greater than supply, which is restricted by local government regulations. In February, sales rose in all four regions of the country. Sales in the South climbed 9 percent to a record 619,000 annual rate. Sales increased about 20 percent in the Northeast, 10 percent in the Midwest and about 7 percent in the West."