International investors tend to repatriate to their home currency in times of crisis. If the dollar really went to hell in a handbasket, then the Euro would be the main alternative as the world reserve currency.
Consider to name the forum "Economics & Finance". Many Wiley Finance/Investment/etc. books, besides others, then would be relevant.
Income, Not Jobs, Will Determine Sustainability: Caroline Baum http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aZ62AQqaP7ew Interesting article.
Anyone have comments on this stuff? 10-08-03 08:09 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Avalanche: This below makes the most sense to me regarding why the U.S. is really so intent on outing Sadam instead of the dozen other threats (that don't have so much CRUDE for example). There is an old adage in political and economic analysis. If you want to understand why people do many of the things they do, then you should âfollow the money.â That is, who benefits from a particular policy often tells you a lot about who is advocating it and why. For all of the postâWorld War II period the U.S. dollar has served as the reserve currency for international trade. It is estimated that about $3 trillion is in circulation around the world. Almost all oil transactions and numerous other globally traded commodities are bought and sold with dollars. In some cases, dollars are hoarded by the citizens of other countries because of a lack of confidence or trust in their own governments. In Russia, for example, as much as $30 billion is held as cash money by thousands of people instead of rubles. The world demand for dollars and the worldwide use of the dollar have served as an important cushion to maintain the value of the dollar on foreign-exchange markets, which has enabled the U.S. government to print money and run trade deficits that might otherwise have put downward pressure on the international exchange rate of the greenback. The demand for dollars has also enabled Washington to fund the federal budget deficits of the past because foreigners have used the dollars they own to purchase U.S. Treasury securities. With so many dollars in use for so many international transactions, parking some of those dollars back in the United States in the form of U.S. government securities for a period of time has usually seemed the safest, easiest, and most logical way of putting oneâs cash to work. But a number of European newspapers, including the London Observer, have pointed out that the world has been slowly shifting into an alternative currency to use for international transactions: the euro. Not long ago, the Iraqi government made it official policy that Iraqi oil, two-thirds of which is purchased by American oil companies, had to be paid for in euros. Last year, a senior Iranian oil representative suggested in a speech in Europe that European oil purchases might be increasingly traded in euros in the future. China and Russia have hinted that they may begin to hold more of their foreign currency reserve assets in euros in place of dollars. If the euro were to increasingly become the alternative international currency of choice in competition with the dollar, the global demand for greenbacks would fall, the value of the dollar would decline, and the U.S. government would find it far more difficult both to export inflation and to finance its budget deficits. The financial clout and muscle of the American government would be dramatically undermined over time with the dollar increasingly no longer the only global reserve currency in town. With the American military serving as the keeper of the oil fields in an occupied Iraq, the first policy change undoubtedly would be that all Iraqi oil sales will be once again exclusively in dollars. This would give the U.S. government the chance to try to stem the tide toward international use of the euro in place of the dollar and to put pressure on the Saudi government to maintain its long-established policy of dealing only in dollars on the oil market. And at the same time Iranian enthusiasm for euro dealings might be tempered if the American liberators are just next door. It is hard to imagine that in the policy recesses of the State and Treasury Departments this benefit from a successful war in Iraq has not been thoroughly discussed in the briefs circulated among those deciding on war or peace. How else can the U.S. government, with federal budget deficits looming for years on the horizon, go on playing its sleight of hand in which it deludes the American public into thinking that government deficit spending is a continual âfree lunchâ that others around the world can be made to pay for? How else can the American government continue to play dollar diplomacy in managing its global empire? Richard Ebeling -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What do you guys think of this below in light of Ebeling's thesis above? Thursday, Oct. 9, 2003. Page 5 German Sources Say Russia Might Price Its Oil in Euros Combined Reports YEKATERINBURG, Ural Mountains -- Russia is increasingly looking at pricing oil sales in euros instead of dollars, reflecting the euro's growing role as a reserve currency, German government sources said Wednesday. "The question is taking on increasing significance," a person travelling with German Chancellor Gerhard SchrÃder on an official visit to Russia said. A switch into euros by Russia, the second-biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia and holder of the world's largest natural gas reserves, would represent a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world's most traded commodity. European leaders have long expressed interest in seeing energy contracts priced in euros rather than dollars to promote the currency and boost price stability in the European Union. Most energy contracts are settled in dollars, meaning that for European buyers, trade in gas and oil is subject not only to fluctuations in their market prices but also to variations in the value of the U.S. currency. In 1999, just after Vladimir Putin became prime minister, he laid out a proposal to move Russia's trade out of dollars and into euros. A Russian Energy Ministry official said he could not confirm the report. "We cannot confirm this information. No talks are taking place on the issue. The ministry draws up export timetables, but does not deal with financial issues on oil supplies," the source said. (Reuters, MT)
Outstanding idea. Imo as the market has increased over the last few months, it has become very sensity to macro/fundamental news and is relevant even on shorter term trades. Lately economic news and reports really do seem to matter (to the equities at least - don't know squat about commodities).
http://www.ny.frb.org/research/current_issues/index.html Q Current Issues in Economics and Finance Concise studies of topical economic and financial issues Editor: Dorothy Meadow Sobol Browse Current Issues: Which year? 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 For studies related to the regional economy of the Federal Reserve System's Second District, see: Second District Highlights âºâº UQ
Economic reports definitely knee jerk the markets one direction or the other -very relevant, good post.