If you have some time to kill and have not already done so, I suggest you read through this thread: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/ There are a lot of trading wisdoms buried within the 6000+ posts. The beauty is each one of us will get something out of it but those something are all completely different. The OP and subsequent posters never really said what is "the obvious" but we each have our own version of why is the obvious not so obvious and benefited from that realization. You are a good man. Good luck to you.
Which brings back the topic of expectancy which is the combination of win percentage and average win amount, if your expectancy is positive then all you have to do is to continue trading, the math will take care of profitability
Funny you mentioned Goldman Sachs, we did a research if the history of their K10, they have the most remarkable expectancy we have seen, I can upload the data to this thread
Exactly, be the house, 50.75% is enough to be consistently profitable, just keep on trading with positive expectancy, this is why trading in short time frames like day trading leads you to profit (or ruin..) faster
He was talking about stocks in that statement and not future I remember Simons was talking about stocks in that statement and not futures or currencies. Correct me if I'm wrong.
it reminded me of Adam Khoo, that said to win, you need "to trade like a casino" you just need to make your wins bigger and your losses smaller. but the problem is the winrate is not 50/50 anymore if you do that. so it helps not. actually losing twice as much is not good on morale I think
pick your poison: 1) Mean reversion: 65%+ win rate, low P/L. lose your money from a couple of horrible trades. 2) Trend following: 30-40% win rate, high P/L. lose your money from whipsaw. you can try to control these metrics with stop loss rules/pyramiding, etc...but high win rate = low P/L and vice versa.