How important is the win percentage?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trade Prophet, May 8, 2020.

  1. hahahaha

    i wonder why hasn't elite trader got as big as social media companies out there ? Am sure this has its own thread somewhere
     
    #61     May 8, 2020

  2. Thats like what william echardt said that humans tend to maximize the chance of a gain rather than the gain itself i think this is true even outside trading
     
    #62     May 8, 2020
    KCalhoun, taowave and comagnum like this.
  3. Now why do you think that is so, if it is so?
     
    #63     May 8, 2020
  4. #64     May 8, 2020
  5. bone

    bone

    “It all depends”

    1. A Hedge Fund whose strategy buys OTM options looking for that big hit - sure, 10% of the trades account for 90% of the profits.

    2. A prop firm like DRW with 1,000 employees that arbitrage and make markets in all things from the mundane to the exotic; exchange and OTC-related - no way, they have at the very least a 50% hit rate.

     
    #65     May 8, 2020
  6. 95% win rate? That's a load of bilge for retail screen jockeys. (Maybe for front-running HFTs..)

    95% win rate and still blow out your account? Ridiculous. If you're smart enough to devise a 95% win strategy, you couldn't possibly be naive/stupid enough to lose all your money with it.
     
    #66     May 8, 2020
  7. comagnum

    comagnum


    Well stated - I think this is something that very seasoned traders come to learn the hard way. Here is a clever & enlightening article that many on here that don't get this concept can learn from with an open mind.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-siren-song-of-high-winning-percentage-2011-4
     
    #67     May 8, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.

  8. Yes you can by never closing a losing trade, thats how you achieve such high rate but then your carried out side because your account is liquidated
     
    #68     May 8, 2020
    DTB2 likes this.
  9. What's smart about that? You could get 100% win rate if you counted only your profitable trades.
     
    #69     May 8, 2020
  10. what iam saying is some people do that hence its possible they cling to 95% win rate but one bad tradr blows their account up
    Just like selling naked options

    this is along the lines also of maximize chances of a gain rather than the gain itself
     
    #70     May 8, 2020