How to know trend or chop in REAL time

Discussion in 'Trading' started by galvinlee888, May 9, 2015.

  1. After landing black 23 times in a row, I would be inclined to believe there was probably something wrong with the roulette wheel, and would definitely bet on black again if the casino didn't already take it out of commission.
     
    #111     May 18, 2015
    dbphoenix likes this.
  2. loyek590

    loyek590

    there is usually something wrong with the markets I trade
     
    #112     May 18, 2015
  3. loyek590

    loyek590

    see, they design these wheels with three colors. A red is a down tick, a green is unchanged, and a black is an uptick

    23 blacks in a row is very rare on a wheel but very common in the market

    who knows, maybe the market is rigged

    I know for sure it is not fair
     
    #113     May 18, 2015
  4. You don't. There, got it? No? OK, I will show you by rephrasing your question: How do you know when RANDOM data is trending or chop?

    ... You don't, & if you keep looking for an answer to an irrational question... Off with your head
     
    #114     May 18, 2015
    loyek590 likes this.
  5. loyek590

    loyek590

    well said, but I have always found it's easier to bet on a mathematical probability

    and everybody knows a coin toss is 50/50

    so that's the one thing we know for sure

    but we never know when it will trend

    but we are not betting on the coin toss, we are betting on how people will bet, and when you get on the right side of that trend it can trend very profitably indeed.
     
    #115     May 18, 2015
  6. The ultimate goal for this is if we can know (or at least with a high probability of prediction) that WHEN the chop will change to trend (or trend to chop), in theory you can develop the most profitable strategy in this world.

    The strategy will trade ABC approach in trending market, and switch to XYZ approach in chop market. Just thinking :p
     
    #116     May 18, 2015
  7. loyek590

    loyek590

    you will know when you start getting stopped out to the point that you start losing your mind, not to mention your trading account, that you are in the middle of the chop, or on the wrong side of the trend.
     
    #117     May 18, 2015
  8. Honestly, it is not that hard to setup a system for trending market, the key is to start your position with a free ride from the herd when they panic (not that hard to figure this out), and put your stop in the place that the stop loss hunter have to pay a high price to hit it. Right ?

    Chop is even easy to trade - as far as you know it is chop and the chop will persists .:D
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2015
    #118     May 18, 2015
  9. loyek590

    loyek590

    most traders believe when it moves against you, you are in the trend and it will just keep moving against you to infinity until it wipes you out. So they use stops.

    But when it moves in your favor they are sure they are in the chop and it will turn on you at any time and they take a small profit.

    skitsoid traders, believe one thing when it moves against you, and another thing when it moves in your favor
     
    #119     May 18, 2015
  10. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    The rule among "professional" gamblers, especially those who engage in negative-expectation games like roulette, is "Bet with the Trend or not at all." The trend in this case is three or more like events in a row, e.g., three or more black numbers in a row.

    So if you started betting after the third black outcome and continued betting and gradually increasing your bet until spin #24 when a red number appeared, you could have netted quite a sum before getting stopped.
     
    #120     May 18, 2015