That's a good looking centerline in your envelope, followed that baby down and put er to bed. Nice. What is it? What is the indicator across the bottom of the chart?
All my PUTs I shorted have blown right through the strikes. But I'm not rolling. Not unless I can do so for a credit, and even then I may just take the assignments lest I miss out on the fire-sales. In any case, for everyone here who has over-leveraged like some mega-bull-retard, good luck on BLACK MONDAY.
I don't relember the date but it was in the previous relief rally - some body stood there and bought and bought and bought and nobody got into a short. It didn't mean anything if we look at it in hindsight.
There are midterm elections going into November. I say selloff into summer, reversal or range into Autumn.
The "macro event" happened Jan 4th. If you caught that turn and are still short you have must balls of steel. Or you didn't and are just flapping your gums Anyway I trade intraday. Rarely overnight. But you did notice the OP asked: "So many people seem to have got short on this drop yesterday and today with utter conviction we'd get a huge down move."
Wouldn't this chart just suggest a return to the bottom of the blue channel, so around 4440? I think the OP is asking how to foretell the two huge down days, which do stand out quite a bit even on your chart. No other pattern on this chart matches this move. Each wave of selling was met with buying.
there's some insanely good traders out there who seem to know exactly where we're going 95% of the time. Covered his positions too early in fairness, but still a nutty trade. Personally, i didn't see it coming at all. Looked to me like we'd retraced 50% on the daily and I was expecting a big push up now towards 4800!
To be honest, interest rates are still laughably cheap. Not to mention, even with the immediate increases, are still pretty cheap. A lot of the recent sell-off was mostly due to margin calls and people being forced to de-leverage. Even a local to me was margin called due to his NetFlix position falling through the atmosphere (this happened to many). In his case, he did have the money to deposit, but got too worried he'd just lose THAT money too, so he got liquidated at a large loss. There will be an equilibrium between those trying to grab the fire-sale prices, and those still caught in a panic and trying to tame their potential liquidations. I'm going to sit back and take the wait & see approach for now...