I need some serious advice and help on day trading FOREX

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Melchi, Dec 1, 2022.

  1. Good1

    Good1

    Not sure what Melchi does with time frames, but here is my theory. But first, think of a pizza, the three main ingredients cheese, tomato sauce, and dough/crust. I used to make pizza at home and found out that all three must be of exceptional quality. You can't have bad sauce and expect the bread and cheese to make up for it. Can't have bad bread and expect good sauce and cheese to make up for it. Same thing with indicators and time frames. Each indicator, or time frame must be tasty all on it's own, meaning, it must make a profit, even if a little profit, all on it's own.

    So then, if an indicator, all by itself, is not able to make a profit, i don't yet understand how it could possibly help guide any other signals that are supposed to make a profit. Same with a time frame. For a high time frame to be used to guide signals on a lower time frame, the higher time frame MUST be expected to make some kind of profit all by itself.

    So let's say you find a method that works on all time frames, yielding a 1.5 profit factor (PF), average, on all. Only then, could you possibly use a higher time frame to guide a lower. The intention is to reduce the number of signals taken, but to significantly raise the PF for trades taken to more toward 2 or better. This can't happen if the higher time frame only ever breaks even, minus commissions, which is the worst scenario possible. If both time frames yield profits, then you could start experimenting with getting in on the low frame, and out on the high frame, or visa versa. Getting in on the higher and out on the lower should yield a higher win% percentage. Only your data could tell you what would happen with the PF. And visa versa.

    The idea is that an ok signal can be significantly boosted by trading in harmony with something on a higher time frame that also makes a little profit. That way, two fairly low (but still profitable) PF systems can work together to get a much better PF. Profit factor is gross wins divided by gross losses. A PF of 1.3 works, but the drawdowns can be so significant, that it prevents you from using leverage responsibly. You have to get the PF up to around 2 to see an equity curve reliable enough to apply leverage.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2022
    #51     Dec 7, 2022
    billv likes this.
  2. I tried 100s of indicators with million strategies combined in a genetic programming approach on a C++ written fast software (on all common timeframes and lots of different markets/symbols). What I can tell you that those strategies to 99% have less returns then a simple buyandhold approach. They also fail to deliver (95% at least of them) to provide better riskadjusted returns. So in the end it is pure luck to trade a strategy based on any indicators to get superior returns, because you cannot decide on any quantitative criteria which of the better trading systems will outperform in the future. So the only conclusion is that indicators on a single asset/symbol do not work at all. You can forget them all. Because all indicators are derived from Price Action and Volume, then all naked Price Action trading without any indicators should also fail longterm. And I spent years testing this all, because I tried it hard to get edge here. My two cents.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2022
    #52     Dec 7, 2022
  3. Good1

    Good1

    Well let's say you go to Russia and accidently (or on purpose) pack some CBD oil, or hashish oil in a vape. And so you get 9 years in a labor camp, and the only way out (earlier) of the gulag is to come up with a price action method that yields a 1.3 PF for both long and shorts (always in) over 1000 trades each. Could you do it? I bet you could.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2022
    #53     Dec 7, 2022
  4. chappy

    chappy

    Today's trade
    ... Screenshot_20221207-080003.png
     
    #54     Dec 7, 2022
  5. Good1

    Good1

    What symbol is that? Looks different from regular Nasdaq. Broker? Oh, and what time zone are you using?
     
    #55     Dec 7, 2022
  6. chappy

    chappy

    CFD..us eastern zone
     
    #56     Dec 7, 2022
  7. chappy

    chappy

    Btw..I have dual citizenship...cfd's are not legal for US residents..
     
    #57     Dec 7, 2022
  8. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Imho daytrading forex doesn't work as well as swingtrading. Or, longer term intraday eg 1-3 hour roundtrips, not scalping like stocks. Pair selection is important eg USD/JPY
     
    #58     Dec 7, 2022
  9. True, I prefer scalping over day trading in forex, as it is more fun and profitable. But, profits also depends upon the right pair.
     
    #59     Dec 8, 2022
  10. I had demo trade on Price Action training trading here with 38:1 RRR trade as I had only 2 pips drawdown, when I entered Short on USDCAD at 1.36842 with target at 1.3607, and now Take Profit hit. Wonderful setup. But I am still bit new to pure Price Action trading. Any opinions ?
    2022-12-08_140209.gif
     
    #60     Dec 8, 2022
    Money Trust likes this.