no in the first year failure rate is 90% this is government release but I am not bothered enough to find the link..... I prefer having one more scotch on my sunday evening and go to bed
Yes, but notice that the signal they are giving already takes this into account considering that is always the opposite of what the majority of their retail traders are doing. Thanks sm
Not sure what you're saying - whose signal? what signal? The IG sentiment report just shows the % of clients long v's the % of clients short.
They call it "trading bias" now But they once called it signal And this is how the signal (or trading bias) is obtained. They in other words suggest to do the opposite of what the majority of their retail traders are doing especially if traders are fighting the trend. where -2 means shorts >= 2 x longs +2 means longs >= 2 x shorts Thanks sm
it's not as simple as 'buy if bullish is below 35%'.... although usually it does work. it's just another piece of the puzzle in figuring out the public sentiment. you can download the historicals, and AAII actually graphs it for you so you can see in the past couple of decades how the public feel about the market along with the rise and fall of the SP500. by the way you will see recent years, including today, is a period on the low end of public participation and optimism.