No shortage of hysterical loons I see. Where were all the deficit hawks 4 years ago???????????? And how quickly will they disappear again if Donald Duck returns to power.
Bingo. Also, they weren't when the economy shut down for the first time during the Pandemic. Yet, there were more worries about the stock market that had tanked so much that negative means returns occurred in all markets... Yet, I do remember many people here asking "how to profit" from the devastation in the markets and the economy. Panic hit when (WTI) crude oil prices sank into negative territory on April 20, 2020 for the first time in history. Once again, more chatter about "how to profit" from negative Oil prices while no President was being blamed. wrbtrader
Both Democrats & Republicans now just believe in MMT and endless deficits. Since 2008 US has just become a bailout nation from Banks to Insurance Companies to Car manufacturers to Airlines & Cruise ship companies. When the USD is no longer the currency of world commerce the US will collapse. I think a part of it is what happened to the EU during austerity following the GFC. The US GDP went up 70% and the EU GDP is still stagnant since 2008. I guess the lesson was deficit spending is superior for growth vs. austerity. I don't know if its as simple as that but I think that was a conclusion by some. I heard recently that Macron & Draghi are contemplating changing their tactics of endless austerity to the US model of MMT. Their problem will be the Germans who are still chasing the ghost of hyperinflation from the 1930s.
-the job report is a job survey by calling companies about their hiring in the future (it doesn't mean a warm body was hired, and occupied a position). -look at the quality of the jobs: "Robust service-sector hiring — particularly across the health care (+71,700) and leisure and hospitality (+78,000) industries — drove last month’s job gains. Service industries accounted for 202,000 of the monthly gains. Hiring was more muted across goods-producing industries". from CNN -strong job report should be around 400K/month, not 200K; CNBC called this period "the roaring 20s " -job cuts by big tech companies (from layoff.io): Intel -15000 Tesla -14000 Google -12000 Meta -11000 Amazon -10000 Microsoft -10000 Salesforce -8000 Dell -6650 Phillips -6000 CISco -5600 Micron -4800 ..
nfp is an estimate alright, but it is an estimate of hiring for the past month, not in the future. onboarding probably takes few weeks. that’s why it is a fake number. adp is private sector only.
Trading and rationalizing don't mix. You either trade based on the chart, or you be an economic professor or professional writer and you can do all the rationalizing. trader : uptrend - buy downtrend - sell economic professor or professional writer : recession - sell no recession - buy
Permabears have been examining payroll and GDP data under a microscope for 15 years looking for the ever-elusive recession. The big-picture reality is that there hasn't been a significant recession in over 40 years which wasn't prompted by a clearly identifiable and dramatic economic & financial event - Covid, the global housing bubble collapse, the tech bubble collapse. The 1990 recession was arguably an exception but only delayed the equity market's advance by a few months. There's no reason to expect any change in employment, GDP growth or equity market trends without some kind of identifiable macro shock. The CRE crash seemed like a good candidate, but for whatever reason that hasn't played out in any dramatic way. A sudden fiscal shock would do it (massive decrease in federal spending and/or rise in taxes) as would a sudden halt in AI-related investments. Neither of those seems very likely in the near future.
Of course, it will collapse - eventually. If it does in 20 years, it makes no money for us now as traders. The debt meme has been around for over 50 years. It's not tradable atm. If it's not tradable it's irrelevant for our purposes.
what is the deficit hawk? basically implying that u.s. national debt will become an issue in a timeframe useful for trading?
who gives a shit if they like trump? sounds they timed the rebound just right. do you want to make money or bullshit about politics?