I'm so confused. At what point the recession thesis is wrong?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by brickhouse9, Oct 5, 2024.

  1. CPI today was a nothing burger as expected making stagflation loonies look even sillier of course.
     
    #41     Oct 10, 2024
  2. mervyn

    mervyn

  3. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Recession theories the "experts" and some traders forecast in mid to late 2022 ( for 2023 and 2024 ) failed throughout, and the NA economy is doing fine. It's a lesson in how people like to hook into themes to attract attention. Too many people decide what they would like to happen ( ie to garner attention, to supposedly force a profit ) and then look for news and data to support their theories. In reality, you should do the opposite.
     
    #43     Oct 11, 2024
    brickhouse9 likes this.
  4. Yeah, they're mostly permabear grifters who make money not from the markets but from their hundreds of thousands of subscribers selling doomporn to them. That said, recession will come at some point, and unemployment has been deteriorating.
     
    #44     Oct 11, 2024
  5. mervyn

    mervyn

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-inflation-views-rise?srnd=homepage-americas

    US Consumers Long-Run Inflation Views Rise to Highest Since 1995

    US consumers’ expectations for long-term inflation rose to the highest rate in three decades on concerns President Donald Trump’s tariffs will translate into higher prices.

    Partly as a result, the consumer sentiment index dropped to 64.7 from 71.7 in January — lower than analysts anticipated. All five components of the index deteriorated, including a decline in buying conditions for big-ticket items. And more than half of consumers in the survey expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year, the highest since 2020.
     
    #45     Feb 21, 2025
  6. What happened to the bond vigilantes ?
     
    #46     Feb 21, 2025
  7. mervyn

    mervyn

    bond prices shot up this afternoon if you haven’t noticed. tmf is up 4%.
     
    #47     Feb 21, 2025

  8. Anybody want to explain the "bond vigilantes?"

    It seems as if they're spooked with Trump. The inflation print should've had carry through.
     
    #48     Feb 21, 2025
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

    steve cohen said it is a tax, inflationary. yield is probably high enough to attract buyers since the fed is rather wait than raise rates. long live the bonds.

    anyway, i am long nearly 50 lots zn, 10 lots zt, and 5% tlt and tmf in retirement accounts.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2025
    #49     Feb 21, 2025