Think about it...is there such a thing as a anti inflation bubble? Like Scrooge McDuck said, people are talking about it, probably not enough of them are though.
I don't disagree with you, but at the same time, if you were sure of this, you could simply sell everything now and buy it back for half the price. So although we all know/think that there are asset bubbles everywhere, I'm not sure how many are actually doing something about it. No matter what we think or what seems logical, the "its coming" part isn't a sure thing because we cannot predict the creativity of the powers that be to keep this going for much, much longer. So if you try and save everyone now, and some actually listen, and a year later nobody is any worse off, you're gonna look pretty stupid, and I'm sure you know this as well. Where things are heading, no matter how sure, is also dependent on timing. Being right, but getting your timing wrong, is just as bad as completely being blind to any major event.
Excellent points! Since I don't have a crystal ball, I'm very careful about telling anyone my opinion about long term consequences...I don't expect my parents to sell all their mutual funds and I've told them that. They agree with my analyses, but we've decided that it can be very difficult to be RIGHT twice...get out before the collapse and get in before the rise...I don't want my parents and grandparents to be timing the market and watching CNBC every day! For me, and I've said this before, diversification into precious metals and agriculture is my preparation for the long term. My opinion is that a collapse will eventually happen...a flood of safe haven money into U.S. Dollar...then a U.S. Dollar crises. When will it happen? I agree with you, the powers in charge will prop things up as long as they can!
You really don't know what you are taking about. Profiting from A one percent sell off has little to do with profiting from a black swan. I can be short delta and short vol such that i profit from a small move down but lose on a big move down. Similarly you be short the market in many ways that dont involve long puts. For example you can be short risk arb spreads or you can be short dividend futures or you can be long credit protection (not a put as its bidirectional) or you can be long correlation.
1 year after volitility is gone again......amazing! working too hard for my 2.5 points on the ES today.....