Let me add one comment, just to clarify: I can predict that the Sun tomorrow morning will rise precisely at time hh:mm:ss based on my location, and my prediction will be pretty much 100% accurate. But I cannot predict at what time the market will reach price x tomorrow at time hh:mm:ss. The stock market is not a predictable phenomena like the planetary motion.
How long have you traded? A guess or bet is a prediction, what else. And if you completely hedged your exposure you would not have put a trade on in the first place. Even when you follow a trend you still make a prediction about trend continuation.
Of course can you make a prediction, it does not mean your prediction will be right. Each time you take on risk you make a prediction on expected value. When you predict the time of the next sunrise you are mostly right because yesterdays and today's sunrise have a lot of predictive power on tomorrow's sunrise. It still is a prediction. Where asset x trades at market close is also a prediction but current levels have much lower predictive power because of volatility involved and a host of other hard to predict variables that impact future asset prices. Just because some predictions encompass random components does not make the entire prediction random. When you card count in blackjack you still deal with large amounts of randomness yet there are other metrics that increase the predictive power over playing the game without counting cards. If that was not the case then nobody would count cards (even if it was allowed). Same in financial markets, nobody would employ a host of highly paid analysts and quants if certain metrics in financial markets had zero predictive power. If you deny that then you still have a lot to learn as rookie.
I do not predict any single trade. Given my win rate is less than 50%, if i was forced to make a prediction on my next trade then i would predict my stop loss would get hit first. If i am predicting anything it is hopefully i should make money after 200 trades, even then it is still more hope than prediction. My edge could stop working at anytime.
So you throw darts at the wall or run a random number generator to decide whether to buy or sell and when?
I use the IB Time of sales. In there you can filter the trades. Set the filter to a size you desire. On ordinary days over 50 is a "significant" trade. Be aware, there are many algos that are used to break up orders into smaller sizes. When they don't try to hide the 1000 contract blocks, the Algos are turned on to "Super aggressive" mode, and don't try to hide anything. This "super aggressive" mode, is a telltale unto itself.
The operative world is could. Now let's say it does fall but only 8% and then rallies back. Would we call his prediction a good one then?
I am a quant, an active NFA Member and a Portfolio Manager at a multi-M USD CTA, been in the industry 20 years, so trust me: not a rookie.... Anyway, I don't think you understand anything of what I am saying, and I find your condescendence a bit out of place. I am not interested in continuing this conversation, no need to reply back.
My condescendence after you called me delusional? That's rich. And sorry, I don't believe a single word you said about your experience. Your previous posts clearly show you have zero clue about expected value and probabilities.