Thank you for this excellent post and link to Andrew Lo presentation. I have studied what Dr. Lo has published for years and used his findings in my trading. It is brilliant, as would be expected from MIT and in keeping with another paper by Dr.Lo on Random Walk versus Predictable patterns in the markets. This really deserves the attention of any serious trader. Thanks.
Thanks for the excellent post! Well presented and inciteful. (Now it looks like ET has returned to more useful information -- and retreated from the contests with sponsors of recent days.) Thanks also to the OP for starting this thread.
An additional point or suggestion on this video: @Startibartfast, I suggest that this video and the discussion of it would be an extremely valuable thread. Perhaps you would initiate a thread illustrating how to apply the knowledge gained from watching the video and use thereof to profitably trade today's markets. Any takers? Or encouragement from ET members to proceed?
First, what style of trading are you doing? Meaning, what trading setups are you looking for? Double tops, 123's, flags, support & resistance etc? If you are just trading price action, then bots don't matter at all.. They actually help especially when they short/long squeeze the market.. Just ride the wave.. I made the mistake last year sticking to one market just because I was used to trading that particular market.. But it is complete suicide.. Just look for a market that has volatility and trade it.. The NQ is way better than the ES IMO..
My 2 cents: Cancer treatment can be stressful. Day-trading can be stressful. Cut back on your stress. Do stuff that you enjoy. IMHO don't compete with the HFT bots trading the noise. If you must trade, slow the game down. Trade a longer timeframe/interval. Only take your very best trade set-ups. Having alerts and reminders wouldn't hurt either. Think Positive, Stay Hydrated, Eat right, Exercise, Be well.
Assuming that 'chart trading' worked in the first place - why would it be any different this year than prior years? Contraction of volatility is just part of the market cycle. Higher volatility might be easier for some since you might have a few stop outs and still be able to get a piece of the action eventually. In a low volatility environment offering less movement, your margin of error is lower since there's less to catch, so to speak. On some days, there might even be only one good trade. A lot of people seem to get continuous stopouts in such an environment since they're trying to trade a different market than the one that's currently in effect. Looking at the last months of 2017, there's certainly been good opportunities in the ES, although there have been some dull days for sure.
Good point! One that many traders do not even consider. I, of course, am a chart reader. Patterns work a percentage of time. Other times they fail. Correctly interpreting the context within which a price pattern occurs is an important factor in deciding if the pattern will likely succeed or likely fail IMO. As needful as it is to "see" chart patterns (assuming one is a chart reader) it is also needful to determine the probability of that pattern doing what is anticipated of that pattern. In addition, it is just as important to know "what" to do when a patterns fails.