Up to a point, you really have to define your max downside. Find the best trade-off btw true negative (Loss) & false one (Opportunity Cost). Then since you know it's the best trade-off. You'll take your loss. Cause it's what's best to do. The worst gamblers are the ones gambling with losses. The best ones, with profits. Humans also tend to fear more than what's existential -> Anxiety. Plus if you take your best loss. You won't feel like overwhelmed. And you still have the option to try again. It's stupid to spend an entire session trying to "manage", close, a loss for a profit. Cut it before it becomes too big to fail / dare / cope with. I prefer to generate a lot of little losses (False negatives or not) and to go ahead. Rather than gambling with them, taking care of them, for finally losing my time, money, positiveness or motivation. Well ... I know that lot of small losses can add up quickly. But usually I am more profitable by cutting losses quick & short than by managing them. We're paid for managing our trades. Which is by offsetting losers and plus if affinity with winners. Next time think about it this way. I'll need an astonishing winner (Low Probability) just to offset an astonishing loser (High Probability), therefore I'll keep it small ! Rather than ... I don't want an astonishing winner to offset that astonishing loser, therefore I'll turn that astonishing loser into a small loser. Because it's already too late my friend ! Don't try to control what's in fortune's hands. You can avoid a big loser (Your hands). But you can't turn a big loser into a small one (Fortune's hands). I believe that 80% of our trade just cancel each other. The 20% left have to be positive ones. Not left tailed. But just right ! One way to Min(Loss) is by entering the market with half your initial size. Then scale up if it's green and put a SL à la Handle (+1tick) !!! Know your initial (Worst) CDF and how to shift it to the right, dynamically, while opportunities arise (Monty Hall).
There isn't a lot of lag in a 5sma, the way i use the ranges removes most of what there is. Gambling and trading at wrong times was my issue.
Whatever works for you, you use, and forget what any other person says, including me However, if not making money every set no. of trades, then no use in fooling oneself, as something will have to change before the outcome changes - I said set no. of trades as everyone knows there will be winners and losers, part of the game, providing you play it the correct way of course, and not have a few big winners and then blow it all with one big loser - been there and done that, several times in the past, but I eventually copped on! Change is a natural thing - only an egit keeps doing the same thing over and over, kinda like alcoholics and drug users! J_S
Years ago I thought daytrading was the "only" way to go - came across this today when tidying up a few things - think I bought it in 1999 What a dope I was, and still is, sometimes! J_S
If I heard correctly, 1) There are more down day than up day. 2) Most increasing happens during the night, instead of during the 9:30 and 4:00. If so, average day trader will more likely lose money, than average swing traders who spend at least a night.
...God, that's a great era...95-99, as you mentioned. Truly a rare, unique era in history. I wish I was trading back then instead of playing computer games. ...I would have been so much way better off. Oh well, better late than never.
Account is +500% here, although it's been pretty much flat for nearly 2 damn years, I've had to take from it a few times aswell, I went from $600 to just over $10,000 once before, then I slapped it, lost confidence, then got busy with work. Don't class everyone as a egit that repeats history for ever, I've literally tried 100 methods looking for better, tweaking and improving my day trading ability ( sometimes worse ) It's really not that hard, DAX is going up, join in, avoid periods of chop, or dax is chop play the chop, not over thinking it is key!!