Markets go up and down. If you are on the right side you will make money PERIOD! Markets may be efficient, but you can still make money consistently by being on the right side at the right time. Couple that with cutting losers short and letting winners run and you may be able to beat an efficient market over the long run... If you are talking about arbitrage opportunities, then I will have to agree with you: there are none left....
The market is whatever you think it is. If you say it can't be beaten you won't beat it. If you believe some can beat it and you can become one of them, persistance will probably see you achieve your dream. I've read so much crap that day trading can't be done, you can't make a killing day trading etc. and the answer has to be for anyone who thinks that, you are what you think. I managed millions for others position trading. I thought moving to day trading would be fairly easy - a bit of tweeking really. It nearly killed me, bit now I make more than I did position trading. All it took was 3 years to convert to day trading working 16 - 18 hour days 6 - 7 day a week with constant belief and a willingness to think differently about how the markets worked. If you say it's impossible I wouldn't disagree because you have stated your personal truth. For me it's impossible not to win consistantly - but boy did it hurt learning. Good luck!
Of course there are arbitrate opportunies left. Who do you think causes people to say "there are no arb opps left?" THE ARB GUYS!!! Most people simply arent willing to do what it takes to swipe the arb opportunity first from the arb guy who is currently nailing it. You want to beat the arb guys making money? Stick a damn fast computer as close as possible to the NAZ/ECN boxes, and write an arb program in pure C for the utmost speed. Hell, use one entire computer for each pair you are arbing. Your box has to have lower latency, and run faster, than what the current arb guys are running, so you can beat them to the punch.
Good post. Most people completely underestimate what it takes. They try "real hard". At least what they think is trying real hard. In the mean time, theres a thousand guys putting in 10X the effort they are putting in. Then they sit there wondering why they cant make money. Answer: Because your best effort simply wasnt good enough. Youre not cut out for this game. Go home. Wait a sec. Please stay. ;-)
Let me correct myself: there are no arbitrage opportunities that I've been able to find in the financial markets. What most "ARB" guys do is really not "GUARANTEED MONEY" with the exception of CONTANGO operations in oil which have costs associated with storing oil and etc....and after all such costs returns can be less than 8% in a year so hardly an opportunity to jump at.... "ARB" guys do not really participate in risk free trading these days. They attempt to point out very small inefficiencies in markets and exploit them for personal gain. There is still risk there though. While it is entirely possible that there is still "FREE MONEY" out there (i.e. arb opportunities), i must say that I have not had the pleasure of observing them and using them to my advantage. ARB these days means LOW RISK not NO RISK.... In the 80s, true arbitrage was alive and well...now arbitrage gone, or, should I say, redefined? I really don't think there are any opportunities out there that can be classified as "GUARANTEED MONEY"
I could not see quotes. But I got 3 % for the past 4 days by two rounds. There is a way to earn some tips.
Go home? That's your advice to people who try "real hard" but don't touch success? I disagree. Determination, perseverence, unrelenting drive to succeed will get you where you want to be. I don't believe I'll ever give up my dreams of ultimate trading success. I'll either die rich or die poor.....there's no middle ground for me.... And if I die poor I'll die either working my ass off at some bullshit job with the goal of building up a stake or I'll be in the process of putting my current stake to work in the markets....For better or for worse that is who I am......and I'd never tell anyone to ever go home.....or if i tell them to go home, i'll tell them to go home to build another stake to come back and try again.....
Many people will try their entire lives in this game and still fail. Telling them to go home, for many, will save them from many years of hardship with no rewards for their efforts, and a shitty non-existent retirement. If your perfectly happy trying your entire life and failing, when you could have done something else and at least had a decent retirement and an easier life, be my guest. But not everyone holds those values. Ive seen too many people crash and burn, and do it again many times, and I know for a fact, they simply dont have what it takes, and never will, and yet they keep trying in vain. Sad. Trading is like watching 10,000 guys trying to become pro NBA players, when 9,999 are 4 feet tall, and one is 7 foot tall. Im telling the 4 foot tall guys to cut their losses and go home Thats damn good advice.