Well we definitely got a glimpse of the preliminary up IT trend channel slope today. Prices were banging against R all afternoon. My day was a bust... after the failure to resume down at 13:00 I didn't go to a neutral bias. crap. Hope you guys did better today. JT
BA trader, As I do not enter the market until after 9:45, i pretty much missed the boat also. I ended the day flat. I am thinking of starting to position trade the ES as right now it would yield me more profits than what I am doing intraday. Today yielded a good example in which position trading and holding long for the long IT would have yielded more profit than rocket and iceberg trading. This can be attributed to the creation of a new IT. From now on I will postion trade when we are creating new IT's. My logic for this is that in order to break a IT trend channel after a second pt 3, their must be a lot of momentum too break it. Therefore, their will be a much higher probablility of continuation into longer time frames. This new IT trend started as a 5 min rocket that migrated to a 15 minute rocket. From now on it is probably more beneficial to hold through the CCC on the 5 minute cause you know their will be a resumption after CCC which corresponds to the 15 minute rocket. I think this kind of play should only be used when creating a new IT. The BIG question is what should I do if it creates a lateral trend instead of a reversal IT trend? My logic above would show me a loss. I guess my question is when do we know that the new IT is going to be lateral instead of a reversal. Anyway, i hope this helps BA_trader. Today was a flat day for me too although i could see the whole day unfolding infront of me in terms of the bigger picture. lol. Off too the bars for St. Pattys
I guess you just look for sequences and flaws... this to me is the difficulty with rockets and icebergs -- sequences and flaws. The market at any moment is more like an impressionist painting than a parts list for a military vehicle. I'm working on trying to get directional bias and momentum of that bias from longer time frames and then using this info to figure out the context for NOW. My goal is to to be able to quickly 'get a feel' for bias and then use this to filter whatever signal I'm using. The ultimate goal would be applying this to IF1/IF2 -- because IMO this strategy is way better than rockets and iceberg. IF1/IF2 really has to be filtered tho because it gets whipsawed terribly in stalls... and it has some problems with some long bar situations. Good trading to ya tomorrow JT
Today we did have our First pt 3 for the new long IT. My first time carving the IT Very Kewl. Another thing i have been starting to pay attention to is stocks having a successful BO on days where we switch to a long or lateral IT from a short one. Just some thoughts.
Yup - I've got the same lines drawn in. Congrats on carving! That rocks. One thing I noticed today that you might want to keep an eye on -- the failed traversal at the end of the day today may or may not be a flaw... depends on whether or not we get continuation tomorrow. If it is a flaw we may begin to see the first pt 3 of the LT down channel forming. I'm gonna stay neutral... but I'm keeping that in the back of my mind. btw - I didn't set up a journal thread -- I sat down to write the intro and then decided "ahh screw it" JT