There are better precursors than that... High corporate debt, low business investment... But it's been like this for over a year. That is why there was speculation of recession mid-2019. But still unemployment remains low, etc. See what happens if unemployment goes up to even 4%. I believe that's when "smart money" would start to pull out. There's no telling how "smart" this virus panic money is.
What's surprising is people not using stops on the way down... I start scaling out at 2day lows, in at 2day highs
It's too volatile. I was using stops on this 3 yr rally and kept getting kicked out & missing the rebound. Thursday & Friday I set stops on my shorts...but I set them wide expecting the above. Friday's was too wide a stop so ended up giving up all my gains for that day. So you're stuck with either: Setting tight stops and missing the action Setting wide stops and missing the gains Setting no stops and trusting your gut. Being stuck to a screen all day
They are currently discharging enough patients from temporary hospitals in Wuhan province that they are closing some of the temporary hospitals. I predict things will be back to normal in 1 month.
Chinese stocks have been stabilizing. I'm planning to jump back in on BABA & BIDU & a few semiconductors but know full well they'll get wrecked when they report earnings (May for BABA).
It is a crash if you took out a first mortgage, a second mortgage and maxed out your credit card to buy QQQ and also did it on margin.