I originally posted this at my blog morganist economics. I own copyright on it so I can post it here. I sent the below letter to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. If you want to read the other letters I sent with the covering letter you can do at my website morganist economics. It is the lastest blog post, you can also get the book portfolio from the books page or from leading bookstores. The blog statement is below. I have submitted a letter to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, on Wednesday 4th December 2019, along with letters sent to other European Union officials and my book portfolio. I raise my concerns about the possibility of a recession in Europe if the existing trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union is not maintained after Brexit. I explain the legal requirement of the European Commission to attain set economic targets. I also explain the possible consequences of a recession on the banking sector and how it could cause another sovereign debt crisis. The covering letter is below. To: European Commission Rue de la Loi / Wetstraat 200 1049 Brussels Belgium To: The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Regarding: Trade Deal Between the EU and UK after Brexit. Wednesday, 4th December 2019. I am an independent macroeconomist who develops new financial tools and policies to enable progress. I supported many of the European Union member states during the Euro Crisis and have continued my support throughout the subsequent economic difficulties. I am concerned the European economy could become unstable, if the current trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union is not maintained after Brexit. If the same trade deal is not maintained after the withdrawal process has completed it could lead to a recession in Europe. Most private and public sector banking product return calculations are based on the value of the principal investment. This means there is an expected set repayment amount that has to be made to fulfil the debt obligation. When a nation is highly indebted, which many European Union member states are, it becomes difficult if not impossible to make the set repayments on outstanding loans. If a nation enters a recession, when the level of monetary output decreases, it reduces the ability for borrowers to repay outstanding debts or even the interest payments. I am concerned that by not maintaining the existing trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union after the Brexit process has completed this scenario could ensue. By maintaining the current trade deal between the two parties you can guarantee the stability of the European economy after Brexit. As the President of the European Commission you have a responsibility to attain set economic targets that are legally required to be achieved by the European Union's own treaties, which expect effective economic stewardship in your tenure. The last time the European Union's set economic targets were not achieved it led to the Euro Crisis. If the set economic targets were missed again there could be another sovereign debt crisis or private debt default in Europe. By maintaining the existing trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union after the Brexit withdrawal process has completed you can eliminate the risk of recession. I have enclosed letters I sent to your predecessor on the issue and my book portfolio I sent to the European Union member states to support them. Kind Regards. Peter James Rhys Morgan. Copyright 2019 Peter James Rhys Morgan.