3 scenarios : people enter too early - they didn't wait for some form of confirmation. But then you must have a solid confirmation plan in your trade plan. Success rate: < 1% precision entry - enters when there is some form of confirmation. patience is a virtue. success rate: ~ 10% people enter too late - They sleep and sleep, wait and hesitate. Then miss the boat. Or perhaps they have a super super solid confirmation plan where they wait for all 9 planets to be aligned before pulling the trigger. Success rate: < 1% Of course, in real life, there are no 3 distinct scenarios. It is a continuum.
My long term method is correct based on futures 1-2%, makes many trades to find extremes. Hedging is correct 98% of the time and it makes overall system profitable. When exteme is found, normally make 75% of 9 year range plus add-on signals over couple of years. It is not a method that is cheap to use nor for those who lack discipline. System always going against the crowd. But it is only system that has done well since mid 1991 for me. I have altered it great deal since then as knowledge expanded on hedging open profits. Yes, long Nat Gas.
NG is now > $3. Today's day range is> 8% !!! Uptrend started on 3 Aug 2023. ________________________________________ Bloomberg) -- European natural gas jumped the most in almost two months as risks to LNG supplies mounted amid the possibility of worker strikes at some facilities in Australia.