I mentioned something in another post that might bear repeating here - it's a classic example of the pitfalls in technical analysis. I've found that when you're analyzing trend the longer time frames are your friend. (and btw, oscillators like the RSI [and wave counts] have been Armageddon for the past ten years, too) How many false exhaustion Elliot Waves have there been the past ten years ? How many false overbought oscillators ? I here everybody talk about the "top" - but nobody talk about the much bigger technical story of the past decade; the trendline bottom that has been in place for the past ten years.
IMO, a (bit long-winded) book to consider to get a better perspective about TA is: - Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson (ISBN-13: 978-0470008744)