Looking for the 2012 S&P forecast target from various analysts

Here’s what the record shows:

The S&P 500-stock index price performance in the three months leading to a presidential election has been a good predictor of whether a sitting President would be reelected or replaced. Specifically, when the S&P 500 index rises from July 31 through October 31, the incumbent President ends up being reelected. But when the S&P posts a loss during that three-month period, the incumbent gets booted out of the White House.

 

yeah but the problem is, by the time Oct 31 rolls around the line is so tight that you could probably make more money buying a long bond than paying the vig and betting on the next president

 

but on a more serious note, when Dukakis won the democrat nomination the market rallied over 50 points, which was kind of a big deal back then

 

The BORTL is either coming out of the ass, and i still dont see, even after your comment, where is the purpose of monitoring BOes,exept of an illustrative matter.

You said: ''Both of the above are legs of a different sort.'';''Both a retrace and reversal begin on peaking volume.''

So how do you then differ them?Here is how:''The trader who makes money by trend monitoring and analysis, simply trades from FTT to FTT.Part of this strategy, plan and consistency is to hold through leg 1 and 2 of a trend and watch for the end of leg 3 @ the FTT."

So the point is to put all efforts to determine the FTTs.Who the fuck cares about the BOes of different sorts then?It`s not even an event.

You either confirmed yourself that the BORTL is coming out of the illustrative ass,or my logic is coming out of my ass.

You didnt show any evidence in your comment that BOes have a significant meaning in analysis.BOes are the consequence,not a cause.I`m sorry,Jack.

 

That's what he said:



"After sorting through thousands of pages of Wall Street’s 2012 outlooks, we discerned the most important point for equity investors: the consensus top-down forecast for the S&P 500 is 1,335, or a 6.2% gain (the bottom-up forecast is for a gain of 15.4% to 1,451)."

 

Attached is a volume chart. There are two illustrations.

The lower one is more accurate.

 

Here is another chart showing the repition of the lower pattern on the first chart.

The BO of the RTL occurs twice on this chart. The place is the first and third trough.

 

I drew these patterns umptenth of times,Jack.I know what the BORTL is,i just dont see it as an event.

 

Here is what price has begun to do and what its container could become.

At the end of a trend what happens is a Failure To Traverse (FTT). See pink vertical lines.

All you need to know to take profits is that the trend ended. With that ending a REVERSAL BEGINS. So right after you take profits, you REVERSE to begin a new profit taking.

IN the CW trading, the BO of the RTL could be considered either a beginning of a trade or a confirmation of a trade.

The attached Defines a REVERSAL. a reversal begins on neither the RTL nor the LTL. Notice the blue price movement begins at the pink lime. Also notice its price coordinant.

Who knows what the container slope will be? The BO on the RTL does not help to determine the slope either.

It does not take very much inspection to see that the first move of a trend involves the time to get to the RTL plus the time to get to the piont where the LTL begins. The CERTAIN THING KNOWN IS THAT THE VOLUME HAS MADE TWO MOVES. PEAK TO TROUGH AND TROUGH TO PEAK.

 

To finish the trend, volume repeats the same process and PRICE DOES NOT REPEAT THE SAME PROCESS.