Good observation.... I'm short small caps by being long the inverse TZA here. Typically small cap and finance sector weakness is a lead indicator for market sell pressure.
As of yet, Could not "Knock the top out of it, ..." O'Brian's corollary to Fudd's Law - "...If they can't Knock the Top out of it - They'll try to knock the Bottom out of it." [Two scientific discoveries are reenacted: Fudd's First Law of Opposition ("If you push something hard enough, it will fall over"), and Teslicle's Deviant ("What comes in, must go out").] cued ...
I look at failure to take out new highs a sign that selling may be next... compare 1month IWM vs TZA/SRTY
It very clearly needs a bear trap to make new highs, but it did the opposite. Grinded for a long time, failed breakout, when those breakout traders who depend on the fed get to breakeven, they're gonna sell. That will give some bearish movement. The question is whether the bottom can be lost before the Fed reduces taper or cuts rate or whatever bullshit thing they're going to do to pad boomer retirement accounts.
There could a change in leadership just like last November. Higher rates will cap multiple expansion in Large Growth.
So then perfect time for Powell to announce accelerated tapering and pull forward 2-3 rate hikes next year.