yes convient theories is what they are Random walk....CAPM...etc non work I agree... it's how it's used or sometimes overlooking to creat a better model Modelers sometimes make it complicated Good modelers do not want to...gets harder that way... but I think its in the sheer observation U think if someone had great model...they will post it?...Noway..(ie. Gann) Trust me my friend you are on the right track to use math Check what they say about Oil...these days getting the emotional rise world-wide recall the Nasda 100 when was 5200 area Same thing DJI Index heading to 11,300 in july politicans and cnbc people wont do their Jobs if they knew were the MKT is going they Just Tag the excuses for the MKT doing its thing So short the ^DJI till july then Wait for cnbc to excuse it in july
Hey Guys Doctors recommended Ciggretes in the 1930 as a digesting thing + relaxing method 1960 they recommended qoilodes over the counter drug to relax elvies dies at least math is the one field that uses profs and not empirical 80 processers in a normal house...computer clocks...etc maybe Albert had something to with it? I do not think the FDA likes it
NEXT BAR …Reason for scalping LOL. SEE most of the time the market is probing back and forth. Price will go where more transactions take place.
IMO... Fundamentally the markets are driven by psychology, external events and business success/failure. However, there are a lot of people who want to treat them as a random process. I would suggest that this is dangerous. Basic statistical calculations are unlikely to tell you that a 1 billion dollar hole is going to appear in a balance sheet out of the blue. I think that mathematical modeling is potentially useful for spotting odd characteristics worthy of further attention. It might also be useful for spotting the effects of other market participants using similar modeling. Looking backwards, you can generate a model the fits basically anything, but looking forward is a different story. If someone believes they have a model that predicts a small segment of the market for a short period of time I would consider that a success, but not count on it lasting long. How many people are running around saying, "My financial model predicted covid and its effect on the market” ? On a side note:. Combinations of probability distributions tend towards gaussian. (Central limit theorem). When someone is talking about modeling a big complex system, but somehow not have it be gaussian, that should suggest some extra attention.