msty thread - YieldMax etf product

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, May 16, 2025.

  1. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Yeah the way I look at it, if I lose 50% of capital to maintain high yield, then its all good. It is almost expected to be sustainable. It hasn't worked out like that however, as according to my spreadsheet, if you bought msty at launch your position would be:

    Start date 22-Feb-2024 10-Jun-2025
    Price 21.19
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 4,719
    Unrealized gains/loss $94.38
    Dividends received $181,069.37
    Yield 181.07%
    NAV $281,164
    Monthly income $12,071.29
    (No drip)


    Even if you bought at the highs:

    Start date 28-Mar-2024 10-Jun-2025
    Price 42.99
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 2,326
    Unrealized gains/loss -$50,662.94
    Dividends received $89,250.06
    Yield 89.25%
    NAV $138,587
    Monthly income $5,950.00
    (No drip)


    However if you bought at the recent highs

    Start date 20-Nov-2024 10-Jun-2025
    Price 44.40
    Investment $100,000
    Shares 2,252
    Unrealized gains/loss -$52,229.73
    Dividends received $41,354.50
    Yield 41.35%
    NAV $89,125
    Monthly income $5,169.31
    (No drip)

    So as usual, timing is everything. :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2025
    #311     Jun 10, 2025
  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    How about some preferred stocks? The best performing kind

    Some mstr bulls are treating STRK and STRF as guaranteed risk-free alternative to US Treasuries with 8% and 10% yields

    Unfortunately the fixed income investors, are starting to figure it out, some mstr bulls are saying these things will eventually yield less than US 30yr Tresuries

    They are up 20-30% the past few months, trading above par and still going up, the preferred shares price go up, the effective yields go down

    As an aside, they were designed using AI

    new one that's about to come out is STRD, the "junk" bond version of the mstr preferred stocks, due to non-guaranteed dividends


     
    #312     Jun 10, 2025
    jbusse likes this.
  3. VicBee

    VicBee

    Sure, but the yields are out of this world, doing nothing!
     
    #313     Jun 10, 2025
  4. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Yes and that's what the sheet shows...even in worst case scenario your NAV would only be down 11%
     
    #314     Jun 10, 2025
  5. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Projected 1-Year P&L — $100K Investment (BTC @ $250K by Nov)

    | Asset | Entry Price | Projected Price | Shares | Capital Gain | Dividends | Net P&L | Total Return |
    |---------|-------------|-----------------|------------|-----------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|
    | MSTY | $21.00 | $50.00 | 4,761.90 | $138,095.24 | $97,050.00 | $235,145.24 | +235.15% |
    | MSTR | $370.00 | $1,350.00 | 270.27 | $264,323.29 | $0.00 | $264,323.29 | +264.32% |
    | IBIT | $59.00 | $120.00 | 1,694.92 | $103,000.00 | $0.00 | $103,000.00 | +103.00% |


    Projected 1-Year P&L — $100K Investment (BTC @ $250K by Nov, with MSTY DRIP)

    | Asset | Entry Price | Projected Price | Shares | Capital Gain | Dividends Reinvested | Net P&L | Total Return |
    |---------|-------------|-----------------|------------|-----------------|-----------------------|----------------|---------------|
    | MSTY | $21.00 | $50.00 | ~8,800 | $255,000.00 | DRIP (all reinvested) | $255,000.00 | +255.00% |
    | MSTR | $370.00 | $1,350.00 | 270.27 | $264,323.29 | $0.00 | $264,323.29 | +264.32% |
    | IBIT | $59.00 | $120.00 | 1,694.92 | $103,000.00 | $0.00 | $103,000.00 | +103.00% |
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2025
    #315     Jun 18, 2025
  6. VicBee

    VicBee

    Following MSTR, MSTY is going up days before the July 3 dividend. For me it's a fairly significant gain and I'm thinking... Why not sell my holding after the dividend drops and get back in within 30 days when the share price drops back a bit.

    What's your thought?
     
    #316     Jun 30, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  7. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    My thought is who gives enough an f about the gains on the stock... It's all about the dividend.
     
    #317     Jun 30, 2025
  8. VicBee

    VicBee

    Right, but I will buy back the stock before the August dividend. The stock gain is close to the dividend amount.
     
    #318     Jun 30, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  9. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Are you saying you're going to sell right after the dividend? Or are you saying you're going to sell now to collect your capital gains before the dividend adjustment?
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2025
    #319     Jun 30, 2025
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Timing a dividend stock is not so easy, and it's not always on the day of ex dividend

    July 2 is the last day to purchase msty, but you do not get the dividend until July 4,

    and if you are selling on July 3 because of the drop when market opens, I've seen msty perform well during the day after announcement due to mstr share price going up, from my memory more than 50% of the dividend amount is recovered

    If you want to time msty, it may happen a week 2 weeks, after the dividend, what you are really timing is mstr, as it follows the price action of mstr shares

    One last mention on msty, I read somewhere that there will be 2 distribution announcements in July so if you come back in August, you might miss the one at the end of July

    If you are concerned about capital preservation but still want dividends, then might want to check out my thread on the Fixed income section for mstr preferred shares

    strk and strf are the best performing preferred shares since issuance and strk has outperformed s&p, mstr and bitcoin since issuance

    It seems investors are waking up that it's an undervalued risk-adjusted asset

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ed-shares-fixed-income-near-risk-free.385352/
     
    #320     Jul 1, 2025
    VicBee likes this.