English please.... ... I don't understand. I value your input, but I find it so hard to follow what you are saying most of the time. I realize this comment is likely an insult, but if you could also add value in the form of an easy to understand analysis of the stock, that would be awesome!
I told everyone here months ago that the div would plummet due to the drop in vols on BTC -> MSTR -> MSTY’s structuring. You can’t see BTC’s vols drop by 30 handles and expect zero consequences. Basically MSTY buys stock, bull spreads and bear risk reversals. Regardless, they are net short vol. The idiot stated that the yield rose, but it’s moot as you’re already in it hence the bond buy at par analogy. And there is no coupon here so it’s what the mkt will bear wrt vol-line. MSTR vols rose a little but MSTR is down. The historic $2 divs on MSTY were predicated on BTC vols >80 annualized. It’s over. None of you understand how the div is funded and you didn’t heed my warning so you’re sitting on a 20% loss on shares for the month and at best a static div. The div is correlated to vol and price. You need both to rally if you want growth in total return in MSTY.
The chart with price adjusted for dividends (i.e., dividends reinvested) shows a different picture. https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/ULTY/interactive-chart
For MSTY, since inception, they've added no value compared to MSTR. You can see this by running a regression of the returns of MSTY (including dividends, so assuming dividends are reinvested) against the returns of MSTR. You get the following: Daily alpha = 0.0042% = 1.05% annualized alpha Beta = 0.710 r-squared = 91.7% 361 daily observations The interpretation is this: investing $100 in MSTY gives you $1 more per year than if you had invested $71 in MSTR. But with the MSTR investment, you still have $29 left over (since you only invested $71) to recoup that $1 extra associated with the $100 MSTY investment. And the thing is, these results are completely consistent with my own experience in selling covered calls on MSTR. I'd make money for several weeks collecting the call premia, and then give it all back and then some when MSTR went on a run past my short strikes. When you factor in that it seems likely that it would be difficult for the MSTY fund managers to get great fills selling calls since they're selling huge quantities, I'm skeptical that MSTY can add value over MSTR in the long run.
Excellent reply. Thank-you very much. I understand it all very well. For the record, I don't own any of these products. For me personally, I'm simply buying IBIT and scaling in as it drops, and when it pops and I can get $100 profit, I take it! Then I hope it drops again and scale back in. The idea is that even if it keeps dropping, I'm happy to hold it with no loss since its not like the leveraged BITX. So I'm not scared of BTC dropping to $100k or lower. The worst case scenario is that this trading account just turns into a long term hold like most of my bitcoin exposure, and then there are no funds left to trade with until the position recovers. I am always put more money into the trading account and keep lowering the average price. On the flip side, if after my exit it keeps going up and I can't get back in lower, then oh well, I miss out on potential profits. But so far, Bitcoin just grinds higher, so to me, it makes sense to try and capture some of this sideways action.
And this also assumes getting in at the low 20's levels. If you got in closer to the 30's or 30's, its even worse.
It's not a single stock YieldMax etf, like msty or plty or nvdy As broomstick mentioned, there were major changes recently (the weeklies vs monthlies is a major change, but also the strategy) Saw on a video that the 1yr return is 26% when dividends are accounted for the ulty share price has bounced from the bottom and is stable at $6, but my goal is income, so if I can get 9-10 cent dividend and every week, I would be very happy with that and they do adjustments on the holdings in case there are some bad performers unlike a msty or plty or any of the single-holding YM etf's not sure if it's feasible but if holding a lot of ulty shares, it could be possible to buy a weekly otm put on qqq or one of the mag 7 as a hedge in cases like what happened last Friday Tariff again (21k shares is over $100k of annual income, taxed as income, so basically a 6 figure job in the US, and if living abroad where cost of living is not as high, can get away with a lower number of shares)